KEY POINTS:
Official alarm in Washington at the deteriorating United States economy could have major repercussions for the race for the White House, with Republicans the most likely losers.
Each economic downturn is different, but whether deep or shallow, they have one common political thread. They usually presage a change of party in the White House.
It happened most famously in 1932, when the onset of the Great Depression propelled the Democrat Franklin Roosevelt to power, replacing Herbert Hoover.
In 1980, the story was similar. Economic crisis, and the perceived inability of the Democrat Jimmy Carter to cope was a major factor in the victory of Ronald Reagan. A recession, albeit a very shallow one, is also credited with sealing the defeat of Republican George Bush in 1992.
Republicans stand for superfree markets and deregulation, and if one factor is responsible for today's troubles, it is overlax regulation of the financial markets. If anything, this crisis stems from an excess, not a lack, of free enterprise. Government is traditionally reviled by Republicans as part of the problem, but it is to government that Americans now largely look for a way out of the mess.
"If the economy is sliding into a recession that would favour the Democrats," said Andy Smith, political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, echoing the view of many political experts that the Democrats have a natural advantage, with a "throw-the-bums-out" clamour for change sweeping the country.
But Smith says a campaign about national security would favour Republicans, particularly if the GOP nominates Senator John McCain. His history of bucking the Republican establishment at times could help him in a general election campaign.
"If you looked at every dynamic ... it should be a Democratic year," said South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. "But I think the unusual times in which we live will defy convention ... McCain is the biggest threat to Democratic hopes ... because he puts [Democratic] states in play."
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll asked voters who has the personality and leadership qualities to be president. McCain had 60 per cent, Democrat Barack Obama had 59 per cent and Democrat Hillary Clinton had 55 per cent.
"The presidential race now looks like a toss-up - perhaps even with a Republican edge," Paul Starr, co-editor of the liberal American Prospect magazine, wrote in the Washington Post this week. "If Democrats don't stay smart, tough-minded and realistic, we could blow it yet again."
There are plenty of reasons for doubt on both sides.
The warning signs for Republicans are apparent in the turnout numbers so far from some of the early contests in the nominating process. In Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Democratic turnout doubled the Republican tally, suggesting a higher level of enthusiasm on the Democratic side.
"It's going to be a very steep uphill climb for the Republicans because the Iraq war, while steadied by the surge, is five years old with no end in sight and the economy is headed south," said Cal Jillson, of Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
In the past 50 years, the only time a party has hung on for a third presidential term was when Reagan won two terms and was succeeded by his Vice-President. But against that, Clinton is viewed negatively by a large segment of voters not anxious to return the Clintons to the White House. Obama has made a compelling case for change but has little foreign policy experience.
Republican Mitt Romney has economic experience but not much on national security. McCain has a foreign policy and national security background but is not an economic expert.
Still, Republicans think they stand a good chance and liked the bickering debate on Tuesday between the Democrats' leading candidates, Clinton and Obama.
"Republicans need to encourage the television networks to host more and more debates, because every time these two go at it like they did it turns off Democrats, it turns off independents and it turns on the Republicans," said Republican strategist Scott Reed.
- INDEPENDENT, REUTERS
