Downing Street furious over timing of report on Iraq intelligence

1.00pm - By ANDREW GRICE

LONDON - Tony Blair suffered another crushing blow over Iraq yesterday when it emerged that the inquiry into Britain's intelligence about Saddam Hussein's weapons will report on the eve of two critical Parliamentary by-elections.

Downing Street is furious that Lord Butler of Brockwell, the former Cabinet Secretary, intends to publish his committee's eagerly-awaited report just before the by-elections in Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester South take place on July 15.

Labour, which is likely to come under pressure from the Liberal Democrats in both seats, deliberately called the contests on that date in the expectation they would take place before publication of the Butler report. Mr Blair had asked Lord Butler to complete his inquiry by the end of next month and expected his work to take him close to the deadline.

The Independent understands that Lord Butler intends to deliver his verdict on July 14, which would probably ensure that it dominates the news agenda as the by-elections take place. His move is seen by Number 10 as a sign he is determined to demonstrate his independence from the Government.

The timing has caused consternation in the Government because it could wreck plans drawn up by ministers to ensure that public services dominate the run-up to the by-elections. The Treasury announced yesterday that Gordon Brown would unveil his three-year government-wide spending programme on July 12, and ministers planned to follow it with a series of "good news" announcements over the next few days.

Lord Butler's move is the latest example of what Mr Blair has called the "cloud" of Iraq overshadowing the domestic political agenda. Several attempts by the Prime Minister to "move on" from Iraq have ended in failure.

Some Downing Street aides want to urge Lord Butler to delay his report until after the by-elections but others argue that such pressure could prove counter-productive and undermine the credibility of his investigation.

Sources close to the Butler committee suggested it had always worked to a timetable of "mid-July" and did not want to be deflected by unrelated events.

There are growing fears in government circles that Lord Butler will produce a much more hard-hitting report than was expected when his investigation was announced in February after President George Bush promised a similar inquiry in the United States.

Ministers believe the former Cabinet Secretary will be anxious to avoid the charge of presiding over a "whitewash" -- a widely-held criticism of Lord Hutton's investigation into the death of the government weapons expert David Kelly.

One minister said: "There is a lot of anxiety in Number 10. Butler has interpreted his remit widely and has been asking some searching questions. The expectation is that he will produce a thorough and hard-hitting report."

The speculation in Whitehall is that the Butler committee will look into the way in which decisions were taken by Mr Blair's tight but informal inner circle in the run-up to last year's Iraq war.

The Independent disclosed on Monday that the committee was probing the way Downing Street "spun" the dossier on Iraqi weapons published in September 2002, which included the claim that Saddam could deploy weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes.

It also emerged that the investigation was focusing on the claim that Iraq tried to obtain uranium from Niger, an allegation discredited after documents were dismissed by the International Atomic Energy Authority as forgeries.

Lord Butler's terms of reference were to "investigate the accuracy of intelligence on Iraqi WMD up to March 2003, and to examine any discrepancies between the intelligence gathered, evaluated and used by the Government before the conflict, and between that intelligence and what has been discovered by the Iraq Survey Group since the end of the conflict."

Lord Butler's determination to avoid the criticism levelled at Lord Hutton was reinforced when the Liberal Democrats refused to join his inquiry team, arguing that its remit was too narrow. The Tories initially agreed to take part but later withdrew, claiming Lord Butler's review of his brief was "unacceptably restrictive." But in a snub to Michael Howard, the Tory MP Michael Mates decided to remain on the committee.

Mr Blair hopes that a new security plan for Iraq will be published by the end of next month, setting a timetable for training Iraqi forces and the eventual withdrawal of British troops.

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Herald Feature: Iraq