KEY POINTS:
The Russian parliament has taken the first step towards extending the country's presidential term, fuelling speculation that the Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, could soon return to the Kremlin.
The State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, voted overwhelmingly yesterday, in the first of three readings, to back constitutional amendments which would extend the president's term from four to six years.
Analysts said the move, which is being pushed through at rare speed, is likely to lay the ground for Mr Putin's return, possibly providing a legal loophole to call early elections.
Mr Putin was constitutionally obliged to step down after serving two terms as president in May, handing the reins to his handpicked successor Dmitry Medvedev and moving to the premiership.
Insiders say Mr Putin had resisted calls from his hardline backers to change the constitution himself to allow for a third term, and many expected the move to come during Mr Medvedev's time in office.
Yet analysts say the speed of the move could be a response to the country's rapidly unfolding financial crisis.
Mr Medvedev announced the proposed constitutional changes during his first State of the Union speech last week, surprising Russia-watchers and many inside the cabinet.
Mr Putin responded by backing the proposals while insisting they had "no personal dimension".
"Regarding who could run for office and when, it's too early to talk about that now," he said.
The United Russia party, formed to back Mr Putin, holds a large Duma majority and is likely to pass the amendments in two readings set for next Wednesday, the same day the party's annual congress is due to open. They were passed yesterday by 388 votes to 58.
The changes would also extend Duma terms from four years to five. Both Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev remain overwhelmingly popular, with Mr Putin seen as the dominant force.
Their approval ratings, however, took a hit in September, as the nationalism roused by the country's sharp August war with Georgia began to fade and the credit crisis began to take hold.
Mr Putin's popularity slid 5 per cent to 83 per cent, while President Medvedev's slipped 7 per cent to 76 per cent, according to a Levada Centre poll.
Mr Putin built his popularity on an oil-fuelled economic boom, following the tumultuous Yeltsin years and the country's 1998 financial crisis, when Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt and devalued the rouble, wiping out the savings of many Russians.
Russia has been hit hard by the global economic crisis, compounded by investors' fears over the Georgia war and shareholder disputes at home.
The country's markets have dropped 70 per cent from mid-year highs, while reserves have dropped $112bn and a record $50bn left the country in October alone. The government has pledged more than $200bn in bailout measures, and this week signalled it would drop its stringent defence of the rouble n a step that could prove politically unpopular.
Already Russians are taking note, changing $6bn worth of roubles into dollars in September, and bankers expect the figure for October to be even higher.
Mr Putin could be seeking to leave his current post in order to pave the way for a prime minister better versed in day-to-day management of the financial crisis, said Dmitri Trenin, acting director of the Carnegie Centre in Moscow.
"As prime minister, you are directly responsible for dealing with the crisis," Mr Trenin said.
"Putin is not the best qualified person to work at that level."Were Mr Putin to return to the Kremlin, the move would probably be criticised in the West and by domestic opponents, who decry the deterioration of democracy and human rights under his rule.
But Katya Malofeeva, a political analyst at Renaissance Capital investment bank, said the move was long planned, and did not necessarily mean Mr Putin would return to the Kremlin.
- INDEPENDENT
