KEY POINTS:
Dmitry Medvedev, cast as winner in Russia's presidential elections, should in theory be everything Europe desires after eight bruising years with Vladimir Putin.
Mistrust of Putin runs deep in the European Union. Initially hailed for his youth and vigour after the sick and corrupt Yeltsin era, the former KGB agent is now widely seen as dangerously jingoistic, contemptuous of media freedom and the rule of law.
By contrast, Medvedev, 42, is not a member of the KGB clan that rose with Putin. A lawyer by training, he has assailed Russia's "legal nihilism" and, as chairman of Russia's gas giant Gazprom, is a familiar face in the Western business world.
But the view of many analysts in Europe is that Medvedev, the First Deputy Premier, has no power base of his own. As a Putin protege, he is expected to appoint his boss as Prime Minister. Barred from holding more than two terms as President, Putin can thus continue to wield power as premier.
Katynka Barysch, deputy director of London think-tank the Centre for European Reform, says the EU was "strikingly silent" as Russia headed for presidential polls that had been boycotted by the main European election watchdog, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
Europe's instinct has been, "we don't want to antagonise them too much," says Barysch.
Putin has brought stability to Russia and the country has been enriched by the surging income from gas and oil but his Russia-first, authoritarian style has left a deep imprint on relations with Europe.
"Russia and the European Union are neighbours geographically. But geopolitically they live in different centuries," writes Robert Kagan, a fellow at The German Marshall Fund.
"A 21st-century European Union, with its noble ambition to transcend power politics and build an order based on laws and institutions, confronts a Russia that behaves like a traditional 19th-century power," believes Kagan.
" ... Europe sees the answer to its problems in transcending the nation-state and power. For Russians, the solution is in restoring them."
The long list of conflicts include the murder by polonium poisoning of exiled Putin critic Alexander Litvinenko; Russia's bullying of Britain; its threats over the eastern expansion of Nato; and the bitter diplomatic row over Kosovo.
But the biggest underlying problem has been Europe's dependence on Russian gas. Moscow has used energy as a weapon to cow former Soviet republics on its rim, and the repercussions of this have been felt in Western Europe, where faith in Russia as a strategic supplier has been rocked.
Robert Larsson, of the Swedish Defence Research Agency, has counted more than 50 coercive incidents by Russia in its energy policy from the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 to 2006. These include cut-offs, takeovers, blackmailing, threats or price bullying.
Today, Russia supplies about a quarter of European gas and the share is expected to surge in the coming years as European production winds down. At present, the EU has to import 50 per cent of its gas; by 2020, this is set to reach 75 per cent. During the Putin era, the EU has muted its criticism of Russia in order to keep the gas flowing - and European unity is sacrificed as national governments cut their own deals with Moscow.
"Moscow has successfully followed a policy of divide and rule, doing deals which appeal to the national interests of individual European countries," the Independent said in an editorial.
"Things will only change if Europe adopts a more united front in its dealings with Russia. If that happens then issues such as democracy, human rights, respect for the rule of law at home and abroad, and greater respect for the sovereignty of neighbouring states will become concerns that Russia's new President, and the man pulling his strings, will be unable to ignore."
Andrew Wilson of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a centrist thinktank, agrees that European leaders should set a premium on EU unity and wait patiently to see if Medvedev can cut Putin's strings.
