Donald Trump’s approval rating when he left office was 34 per cent. Photo / Doug Mills, The New York Times
It’s only been three years, but memories of Donald Trump’s presidency have faded and changed fast.
Not all that long ago, many Americans committed hours a day to tracking then-President Donald Trump’s every move. And then, sometime after the riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and before his first indictment, they largely stopped.
They are having trouble remembering it all again.
More than three years of distance from the daily onslaught has faded, changed — and in some cases, warped — Americans’ memories of events that at the time felt searing. Polling suggests voters’ views on Trump’s policies and his presidency have improved in the rearview mirror. In interviews, voters often have a hazy recall of one of the most tumultuous periods in modern politics. Social scientists say that’s unsurprising. In an era of hyper-partisanship, there’s little agreed-upon collective memory, even about events that played out in public.
But as Trump pursues a return to power, the question of what exactly voters remember has rarely been more important. While Trump is staking his campaign on a nostalgia for a time not so long ago, President Joe Biden’s campaign is counting on voters to refocus on Trump, hoping they will recall why they denied him a second term.
“Remember how you felt the day after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016,” the Biden campaign wrote in a fundraising appeal last month. “Remember walking around in disbelief and fear of what was to come.”
For now, the erosion of time appears to be working in Trump’s favour, as swing voters base their support on their feelings about the present, not the past. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted late last month found 10 per cent of Biden’s 2020 voters now say they support Trump, while virtually none of Trump’s voters had flipped to Biden. The poll found Trump’s policies were viewed far more favourably than Biden’s.
“What’s been clear for a while, especially among swing voters, is that Biden is just more front and centre,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican consultant who opposes Trump and has conducted dozens of focus groups with conservative and swing voters in recent months. “They know about what they don’t like about Biden, and they have forgotten what they don’t like about Trump.”
Polls suggest that Trump has also made inroads with voters who may have been too young to remember his first term in detail. The nearly 4.2 million 18-year-olds who are newly eligible to vote this year were in middle school when Trump was first elected. Polls show they have soured on Biden in part because of his support for Israel in the war in the Gaza Strip, saying they favour Trump on the issue, even though Trump was also a staunch ally to Israel while in office.
Ian Barrs, who works at a funeral home in Atlantic, Iowa, said there were other parts of Trump’s record that have seemed to fade. He often marvels how his Trump-supporting friends recall the years 2017 through 2019 as halcyon days. They all had forgotten 2020 and the year of Covid-19, he said.
“Now I don’t blame Trump for Covid,” Barrs said. “But all those things, the lockdowns, those happened under Trump.”
It’s common for Americans to look back fondly on ex-presidents. A Gallup analysis in June found 46 per cent of adults approved of Trump’s handling of his presidency, based on what they “heard or remembered.” Trump’s approval rating when he left office was 34 per cent.
Asked what events he remembered about the Trump administration, Roger Laney, a 55-year-old independent, undecided voter in South Carolina, described a general sense of “chaos.”
“He made great media,” Laney said, recalling how he would listen to public radio on the way home from work and think, “OK, what has Trump done this time?”
The frenetic pace of the Trump years meant many Americans made Trump news an obsessive habit — or tuned out completely. The rat-a-tat volume coincided with the continued rise of siloed, algorithm-driven social media and shrinking attention spans.
That environment created a kind of numbness that not even 91 felony counts or enormous civil penalties for defamation and fraud can break through, said Andrew Franks, a professor of political psychology at the University of Washington.
“Negative information about Trump is no longer distinctive, it is just the air that we breathe,” Franks said. “It’s the water that we are swimming in. It just becomes a conditioned emotional response, where you either feel joy and admiration or disgust and anger at the sight of his face — but each individual act is just a drop in the ocean.”
Ross Kuehne, an independent from Candia, New Hampshire, who supported Nikki Haley, Trump’s rival for Republican nomination, said he remembered being overwhelmed during Trump’s term.
“It was coming too fast to process,” he said. “That was kind of the genius of it — is there was too much to keep track. It was like buses. Why get outraged about one thing when there’s going to be a new thing along in 15 minutes?”
Asked what he remembers now, Kuehne, who plans to vote for Biden, rattled off a greatest hits of what he considered low points: Trump noting he had “great friendship” with the North Korean dictator. A government shutdown. Mexico not paying for the border wall. Trump describing “very fine people on both sides” at a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. His supporters storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
That left out a whole host of major and minor dramas.
The recording of Trump saying he could grab women by the genitals. Praising Russian intelligence. Crudely disparaging African countries. Separating children from their parents at the Mexican border. Telling children Santa Claus isn’t real. Considering buying Greenland. Suggesting using nuclear weapons to stop a hurricane. Threatening to withhold aid from Ukraine if its president wouldn’t investigate the Biden family. Suggesting Covid patients inject bleach.
And then there were things Republicans remember. The climbing stock market. Tax cuts. Deregulation. Pulling out of the Paris climate accord. Abandoning the nuclear deal with Iran. The Abraham Accords codifying peace between Israel and several Arab countries. Fewer illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border.
“America was stronger and tougher and richer and safer and more confident,” Trump said at a recent rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina. “Think of it.”
Paul Schibbelhute, retired engineer from Nashua, New Hampshire, who voted for Trump twice, doesn’t dispute part of the argument.
“My 401(k) went through the roof, I made a ton of money, life was good. There was no inflation. There were good times,” he said. But Schibbelhute broke from Trump after he refused to concede his defeat in 2020 and voted for Haley in his state’s primary.
But Haley has failed to dislodge this version of Trump’s presidency from enough Republicans’ minds.
“Everybody talks about the economy they had under Donald Trump,” Haley said during a campaign event in New Hampshire in January. “It was good right? But at what cost? He put us $8 trillion in debt in four years. Our kids will never forgive us for this.”
For any event to be remembered, political psychologists say, it has to have mattered to you in the first place. James W. Pennebaker, a professor emeritus who researches collective memory at the University of Texas at Austin, said people were more likely to remember events that affect their lives, while events that are embarrassing or reflect negatively on people are more likely to be forgotten, he said.
Pennebaker noted that polarisation and a fractured media environment meant that Americans were less likely to agree on set facts, preventing the country from creating a collective, shared memory.
“It is almost breathtaking to me,” he said. “We are living in a fascinating time when we see the other side threatening our existence, so we build up how great we are and denigrate how bad the other side is. And it entirely shapes not just the present but the past, too.”
That pattern is particularly clear on how people remember Jan. 6. In the three years since the attack played out on television, Republicans have become less likely to describe the rioters as violent and more likely to absolve Trump of responsibility, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.
Professional Democrats, who have watched Trump eclipse Biden in public and private polling, continue to believe the former president isn’t as strong as the surveys indicate. They argue that if they inform enough people about Trump’s record in office that voters sceptical about Biden will vote for him anyway.
“You can look back and have that sort of collective amnesia of just how bad the policies were and just how harmful they were,” said Lori Lodes, the executive director of Climate Power, a liberal advocacy group whose polling found 52% of likely voters now approve of Trump’s time in office.
The majority support for Trump that shows up in polling, Lodes said, is “not there now. It is based on this false illusion of looking back.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Jennifer Medina and Reid J. Epstein
Photographs by: Doug Mills, Stephen Crowley, Hilary Swift, Todd Heisler, Edu Bayer and Erin Schaff
©2024 THE NEW YORK TIMES
The victory could give Trump a broad mandate to pursue an agenda of radical change.