Early in the summer of 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a report on unsafe coronavirus prevention practices in the US According to the report, 4 per cent of the 502 respondents stated that they had drunk or gargled diluted bleach in the past month, 4 per cent said the same about soapy water and 4 per cent said the same about household disinfectant. This quickly inspired a number of alarming headlines.
This media response was understandable. While 4 per cent may not seem like much, if this study sample was representative of the US population, it would imply that roughly 12 million Americans engaged in these dangerous behaviours — an alarming figure.
But there may be reason to question that conclusion. First of all, the CDC report noted that a survey of just 500 opt-in participants was not necessarily representative of the US population (though the CDC did weight responses to line up with national age, gender and race demographics). And beyond these sample limitations, a second study (currently undergoing peer review) that aimed to replicate the CDC's findings with some additional quality control suggests that the data itself could have some serious flaws.
Specifically, this new study from online research platform CloudResearch sought to address two major issues that can threaten data quality: inattentiveness (i.e., respondents who are careless or aren't paying attention) and mischievousness (i.e., respondents who intentionally lie or mislead researchers). Psychologists who study relatively rare behaviours, such as hard drug use, have long known about these challenges. For example, in a 1973 drug-use study, researchers found that when they included a fake drug in the list of drugs they asked people about, 4 per cent of respondents reported taking a drug that didn't exist, suggesting that the data was likely not totally reliable.
You might have noticed the recurring 4 per cent figure. That might not be a coincidence. The psychiatrist and blogger Scott Siskind coined it the "Lizardman's Constant" back in 2013, in reference to a widely publicised Public Policy Polling report that 4 per cent of respondents said they believed shape-shifting lizard people were controlling the world. This poll garnered a lot of media attention. But Siskind and others argue that that 4% is a lot more likely to reflect inattentive and mischievous respondents than a true belief in such an outlandish conspiracy.