Day of reckoning for former allies

If the outcome of Sri Lanka's bitterly contested presidential election was decided solely by which candidate had the largest billboard, then incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa could sleep easily in his bed.

At the international airport near Colombo, a huge hoarding shows the President, dressed entirely in white, a beatific smile beaming across his face.

His advisers believe that as voters go to the polls tonight, their best asset is the candidate himself, a man who oversaw the defeat of separatist rebels and ended a brutal 30-year civil war.

Indeed, less than a year ago, after Government troops crushed the rebels of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the authorities responded with a deluge of flag-waving celebrations that projected the President as something halfway between a God and a king, no one could have guessed that eight months later Rajapaksa would be engaged in an ugly political dogfight. And yet he is.

Ironies abound in Sri Lanka. The first is that Rajapaksa's opponent, his former Army chief Sarath Fonseka, is a man the President initially considered an ally and who was equally feted for his role in defeating the LTTE.

The second is that while this election will split Sri Lanka's ethnic majority - both Rajapaksa and his main opponent are staunch Sinhala Buddhist nationalists - the outcome may depend on whether the minority Tamil community bothers to vote and who it votes for.

The final quirk is that many Tamils appear set to vote for Fonseka, the man who oversaw a military operation that - according to United Nations estimates - resulted in the death of up to 10,000 Tamil civilians.

As voting day has drawn nearer, so the contest has become increasingly nasty. Reports suggest there have been up to 800 incidents of pre-poll violence and that four people have been killed. Yesterday, the opposition coalition backing Fonseka raised the stakes further by claiming it had evidence the Government was planning a "coup d'etat of sorts" if the election went against it.

Up to 15 armoured personnel carriers had been moved into the city for this purpose, it claimed. It added that in such circumstances its supporters would take to the streets if the will of the people was ignored.

"We have to be ready to defend our franchise," said Ranil Wickremesinghe, head of the United National Party (UNP), and one of the main figures in the coalition that secured Fonseka's candidacy. "We are making counter plans. We will get on to the streets if necessary."

Fonseka, who like Rajapaksa now dresses entirely in white, said he was confident the men he had commanded while still in uniform could not countenance such behaviour.

It was only last November that the 59-year-old general announced his resignation as chief of the defence staff and turned his mind to politics. In a series of outspoken attacks against the President, Fonseka said that in the aftermath of the LTTE defeat, his own contribution had been overlooked by Rajapaksa, who he claimed considered him a rival. He said at one point the President believed he was planning a coup.

The former Army chief was quickly recruited by an unlikely coalition, made up of the UNP, Muslims, Tamils and some strident nationalists who believed that in the martial, militaristic atmosphere following the crushing of the LTTE, Fonseka represented their only chance of defeating the President.

"You have to make the best of what there is," admitted a UNP leader, Ravi Karunanayake.

This point has not been lost on Rajapaksa or his supporters in the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA). The Foreign Minister, Rohita Bogollagama, said: "What is unique is that the main opposition conceded defeat by not fielding a candidate from their own party. Now they are conceding that the presidency is something that is beyond their reach."

Rajapaksa's supporters say in addition to defeating the LTTE, the President has overseen economic growth and development. Tourism is once again booming. The President also has the benefit of controlling much of the media. The front-page headline in the Sunday Observer newspaper declared: "President assured of resounding victory."

Yet a constant criticism of the President is that his Government, which includes several of his brothers in key positions, has overseen corruption. Another is that it has aggressively crushed dissent, especially within the media where more than a dozen journalists have been killed. The Government denies such allegations.

"Things here are fine if you keep out of politics," said Lal Wickrematunge, chairman of the Sunday Leader newspaper and whose brother, Lasantha Wickrematunge, the editor and an outspoken critic of the Government, was assassinated last January.

In Colombo, many Tamils say they will vote for Fonseka in a tactical stand against the Government. Outside a sweet-smelling flower stall close to a Hindu temple on Galle Road, Thaya, a 31-year-old engineer, said: "We have to get rid of this regime. They are doing everything - they are kidnapping people and taking their money. If they carry on like this they will be the richest people in Asia."

While Fonseka will be glad of such votes, he is aware his main constituency is the Sinhala establishment. When he first announced his candidacy, he sought the blessing of Buddhist monks at the ancient temple at Kelaniya.

He returned there again yesterday. A policeman on duty smiled as he watched the man he said he would be voting for, saying: "We need change."

- INDEPENDENT