A pedestrian makes their way along Sydney Harbour boardwalk in the CBD. Photo / Getty Images
Across the world a new crackdown is gaining pace. It's not about mask wearing or universal restrictions. This is a crackdown on the rights and freedoms of what, in the developed world at least, is a minority. The unvaccinated.
The speed and scale of the policy swing is staggering, and is being felt across the West, including here in the UK. Paradoxically, it comes just as many countries are reopening. Some fear it may become a permanent part of life.
At the softer end of the spectrum there are vaccine mandates for essential workers and special testing requirements for the unvaccinated at borders and airports. In the middle ground, more and more countries are requiring children to be jabbed or introducing vaccine passports. At the extreme, Singapore has withdrawn free healthcare for the unvaccinated, while Austria has confined some two million unvaccinated adults and children aged over 12 to their homes.
"We are not taking this step lightly, but unfortunately it is necessary," said Austria's Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg as the policy came into effect yesterday amid soaring infection rates.
The situation is also tough in New South Wales, where unvaccinated people over the age of 16 are now barred from visiting another person's home other than in a very limited specific set of circumstances, including emergencies. The ban extends to sharing a car and recreational facilities, including many shops, swimming pools and libraries, including in the state's capital, Sydney. Weddings or funerals of more than 11 people are off limits.
In Austria, the unvaccinated are only now allowed to leave home for essential work or food shopping, and the restrictions will last for at least 10 days before being reviewed by the government. The police will carry out spot checks in public spaces and substantial fines will be issued to those caught breaking the rules. Failure to co-operate and show your vaccine status will result in an immediate penalty of €1,450. There are seemingly no special rules in place for families where some members are vaccinated and other not.
Hundreds of people protested in Vienna over the weekend, waving banners reading 'Our bodies, our freedom to decide', but to no avail. Hospitals in Austria, as in other parts of Europe, are coming under intense pressure as winter sets in and further restrictions for the majority are seen as morally and politically unpalatable.
"Why should my children be denied school or access to the cinema when we have all been vaccinated?", is the majority refrain in places as politically diverse as Austria and New Zealand.
Professor Eva Schernhammer of the Medical University of Vienna, says the measures are needed after it was projected that intensive care units would be full within two weeks unless action was taken. "In reality we have told one third of the population: you will not leave your [home] apart from for certain reasons," Schallenberg told the BBC. "That is a massive reduction in contacts between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated."
On the other side of the world, Australia is putting in tough restrictions for those without jabs as it starts to unwind the "Covid zero" policy that saw foreign travel blocked and state borders closed. Residents of Queensland now have until December 15 to get vaccinated or face difficulty entering public spaces or finding a job. "You won't be able to hide," Dr Chris Perry, head of the Australian Medical Association in Queensland, told a local news channel last week. "Life will be miserable."
Some Australians are, to put it politely, sceptical. One called Ms Brennan tweeted: "These rules, for people's own homes, are crazy… Who's going to police this? I have no idea who is or isn't vaccinated, neighbours or friends. So how would I know if they have someone over that isn't? More importantly I don't want to know."
Even in liberal New Zealand, politicians are coming down hard. In areas with high infection rates, the unjabbed face restrictions on the size of gatherings they can attend, as well as bans on visiting restaurants, bars, gyms and hairdressers. When asked by a journalist if this effectively meant creating "two different classes of society", prime minister Jacinda Ardern responded: "That is what it is."
The Māori Party, which represents the country's indigenous population, likened the policy to a "real-life Squid Game" - a reference to the bloodthirsty Netflix hit in which those in debt are killed off en masse.
The crackdown gathers pace
Pressure on the unvaccinated is likely to grow across the world. As more and more countries have lifted restrictions in a bid to "live with the virus" they have found that infection rates quickly rebound – especially in winter.
It has yet to be established what level of vaccine coverage is needed in a population to keep Covid at bay without it threatening health services – but it is high. In Singapore, where 87 per cent of the population is vaccinated, the health system has come under mounting pressure in recent weeks.
Last week, the government warned its citizens they would have to pay for their own medical care if they get Covid and are unvaccinated despite being eligible. The rules will come in from December in a bid to halt the city state's worst outbreak. Singapore is reporting several thousand cases a day, although health experts say most are mild.
The crackdown on the unvaccinated even extends to the land of the free. In the US, vaccine mandates were brought in earlier this year for all federal workers. More recently, President Joe Biden introduced plans for all companies with more than 100 staff to require proof-of-vaccination status from workers, or face weekly testing. Republican politicians have criticised the policy as "unconstitutional" and said they will fight it in the courts but little progress has been made.
In the UK, too, things have quietly been getting harder for the unvaccinated. Both Scotland and Wales have introduced vaccine passports, and in England last week the Government announced it would be a legal requirement for all healthcare workers to be vaccinated by April 1. Those who refuse, and cannot be found non-patient facing roles, will lose their jobs.
The UK's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has also come under pressure in recent months to recommend the universal vaccination of children – something it has refused to date. Unlike regulators in other countries, such as the US and China, where children as young as five are being jabbed, the JCVI does not think it ethically justifiable to vaccinate children for the benefit of wider society.
'Draconian ways'
The crackdown is not just causing anger among libertarians and others who recoil from authoritarianism. Public health experts specialising in vaccination also fear it could spark a backlash – one that could fuel the anti-vaxx movement for years to come.
"I think it will lead to increasing polarisation," says professor Beate Kampmann, director of The Vaccine Centre at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Kampmann adds that those countries keeping the unvaccinated locked down in their homes risk undermining confidence in the state – a key driver of the anti-vaxx movement.
"These are very draconian ways of going about regulating people's behaviour," she says. "The decisions that we're taking around Covid vaccines could influence vaccine confidence on a broader level.
"We already know that a lot of vaccine confidence is related to how people feel empowered in their decision making. If you take these sorts of personal rights away, this will backfire".
The best way of proceeding would be to continue to "engage with the different groups of society who are still holding out… and make people aware of the consequences of their actions," says Kampmann.
Professor Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute, says the crackdown on the unvaccinated is entering "new territory from an ethical standpoint".
"I don't think there's a textbook of what is ethical in public health but if there is considerable doubt, and it's not clear what the trade-offs are, then I think generally, an intervention should not be implemented," he says.
In a Twitter thread this week, Balloux compared the world's predicament to a disaster at sea.
"At times the Covid pandemic feels a bit like a shipwreck to me, with all of us trapped in a slowly listing boat. There would be lifejackets for most, but some refuse to wear them, as they feel they are strong swimmers… eventually, the ship sinks".
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