"They are facing a supply problem and a demand problem," said Alejandro Hope, a security analyst and former official with CISEN, the Mexican intelligence agency. "Once you get them to the market, who are you going to sell to?"
Virtually every illicit drug has been impacted, with supply chain disruptions at both the wholesale and retail level. Traffickers are stockpiling narcotics and cash along the border, and the US Drug Enforcement Administration even reports a decrease in money laundering and online drug sales on the so-called dark web.
"The godfathers of the cartels are scrambling," said Phil Jordan, a former director of the DEA's El Paso Intelligence Centre.
Cocaine prices are up 20 per cent or more in some cities. Heroin has become harder to find in Denver and Chicago, while supplies of fentanyl are falling in Houston and Philadelphia. In Los Angeles, the price of methamphetamine has more than doubled in recent weeks to US$1800 per pound.
"You have shortages but also some greedy bastards who see an opportunity to make more money," said Jack Riley, the former deputy administrator of the DEA. "The bad guys frequently use situations that affect the national conscience to raise prices."
Synthetic drugs such as methamphetamine and fentanyl have been among the most affected, in large part because they rely on precursor chemicals that Mexican cartels import from China, cook into drugs on an industrial scale and then ship to the US.
"This is something we would use as a lesson learned for us," the head of the DEA, Uttam Dhillon, told AP. "If the disruption is that significant, we need to continue to work with our global partners to ensure that, once we come out of the pandemic, those precursor chemicals are not available to these drug-trafficking organisations."
Cartels are increasingly shifting away from drugs that require planting and growing seasons, like heroin and marijuana, in favour of synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, which can be cooked 24/7 throughout the year, are up to 50 times more powerful than heroin and produce a greater profit margin.
Though some clandestine labs that make fentanyl from scratch have popped up sporadically in Mexico, cartels are still very much reliant upon Chinese companies to get the precursor drugs.
Huge amounts of these mail-order components can be traced to a single, state-subsidised company in Wuhan that shut down after the outbreak earlier this year, said Louise Shelley, director of the Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Centre at George Mason University, which monitors Chinese websites selling fentanyl.
"The quarantine of Wuhan and all the chaos there definitely affected the fentanyl trade, particularly between China and Mexico," said Ben Westhoff, author of "Fentanyl, Inc."
"The main reason China has been the main supplier is the main reason China is the supplier of everything — it does it so cheaply," Westhoff said. "There was really no cost incentive for the cartels to develop this themselves."
But costs have been rising and, as in many legitimate industries, the coronavirus is bringing about changes.
Advertised prices across China for precursors of fentanyl, methamphetamine and cutting agents have risen between 25 per cent and 400 per cent since late February, said Logan Pauley, an analyst at the Centre for Advanced Defense Studies, a Washington-based security research nonprofit.
So even as drug precursor plants in China are slowly reopening after the worst of the coronavirus crisis there, some cartels have been taking steps to decrease their reliance on overseas suppliers by enlisting scientists to make their own precursor chemicals.
"Because of the coronavirus they're starting to do it in house," added Westhoff.
- AP
