Auckland's level 4 lockdown has been extended but Cabinet has made an in-principle decision to shift the region down to level 3 at 11.59pm on September 21. Video / NZ Herald
Only 59 fully vaccinated people without serious health conditions died from Covid-19 out of more than 50,000 deaths in England this year, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.
In the first study of deaths by vaccination status, the ONS found that around 99 per cent of Covid-19 deaths between January 2 and July 2, 2021, were in people who had not had two doses.
The UK currently offers three two-dose vaccines: Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna.
Overall 640 (1.2 per cent) of deaths were in those who had received both vaccine doses, but the ONS said many of those could have been infections picked up before the second dose.
Just 256 deaths (0.5 per cent) were considered true "breakthrough" infections where the second dose had long enough to work, but still did not offer protection.
However, the average age of those "breakthrough" infections was 84 and the majority (76 per cent) were classed as "extremely clinically vulnerable". Just 59 did not have serious medical conditions.
Julie Stanborough, deputy director of health and life events at the ONS, said: "The risk of a death involving Covid-19 is much lower among people who are fully vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated or have only received one dose.
"This shows the effectiveness of the vaccines in giving a high degree of protection against severe illness and death."
More than three-quarters of adults in the UK have now received two doses, and most recent figures suggest 95,200 deaths, 23.9 million infections and 82,100 hospitalisations have been prevented by the vaccines in Britain.
Commenting on the figures, Professor Gino Martini, Chief Scientist for the Royal Pharmaceutical Society, said: "It is extremely reassuring to see the latest statistics around the vaccination programme in England.
"The data show that people are much better protected from the virus after two doses, and hopefully this will inspire others to get the vaccination to protect themselves and others."
Booster jabs 'may not offer more protection' against Covid
To boost, or not to boost. That is the thorny question currently being considered by immunisation experts ahead of a potential new winter wave in the UK.
Now it appears that the Office of National Statistics (ONS) may have provided an answer: out of 51,281 Covid-19 deaths recorded between January 2 and July 2 in England this year, just 256 died after they had two doses, and the majority of those were "extremely clinically vulnerable".
The average age of those who died after a second dose was 84, and only 59 double-jabbed people died who were not very ill or elderly.
It means that 99.51 per cent of coronavirus deaths since the beginning of the year were in people who were not fully vaccinated.
Although many of the deaths occurred before second doses were widespread, it is still a striking indication of the protective impact of full vaccination, and calls into question the need for a booster.
More than three-quarters of adults in the UK have now received two doses, and most recent figures suggest 60,000 deaths, 22 million infections and 66,900 hospitalisations have been prevented by the vaccines in Britain.
It's worth bearing in mind that people with severely weakened immune systems are already getting a third dose, so the most vulnerable will be getting extra protection. For everyone else, three jabs are unlikely to bring much added benefit.
This is also the view of Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert, the lead scientist on the Oxford jab, as well as the heads of AstraZeneca who believe that two doses are plenty for the vast majority of people, and would rather see the extra jabs deployed elsewhere.
Despite their concerns, the Government seems intent on pushing ahead with the programme.
Last week, Nadim Zahawi, the vaccines minister, said that the NHS was preparing to boost around 35 million people, and that he expected the rollout to get started this month, to coincide with the flu jab.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) is currently debating whether to advise third jabs, and recently received data from the University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust's Cov-Boost study showing a third jab boosts antibodies seven-fold.
Yet the new ONS data appears to show that people already have sufficient immunity to fight off disease.
"Death rates are consistently lower in people who have had both vaccine doses than in people who have had just one, or no vaccination at all," said Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at the Open University.
"[Of the] people who did sadly die of, or with, Covid-19 after two vaccine doses, a greater percentage had a weakened immune system.
"What this is reminding us is that there will always be people that aren't protected as well by vaccines as the rest of us."
There are, of course, other matters to consider, such as whether a third jab could prevent cases of long Covid or lower the number of hospitalisations. But a new review in The Lancet seems to suggest that two jabs are highly protective against lesser forms of the illness as well.
Based on observational studies to date, the team from Oxford University, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) estimated a 95 per cent effectiveness against severe disease, and more than 80 per cent effectiveness against any infection at all, for both Alpha and Delta variants.
The expert review, published on Monday, concluded that a booster is not needed for the general population because effectiveness is so high, even against the Delta variant.
"Taken as a whole, the currently available studies do not provide credible evidence of substantially declining protection against severe disease, which is the primary goal of vaccination," said Dr Ana-Maria Henao-Restrepo of the WHO.
"If vaccines are deployed where they would do the most good, they could hasten the end of the pandemic by inhibiting further evolution of variants."
The team found that although vaccines are less effective against asymptomatic disease or against transmission than against severe disease, it is the unvaccinated minority who are still the major drivers of transmission.
"Although the idea of further reducing the number of Covid-19 cases by enhancing immunity in vaccinated people is appealing, any decision to do so should be evidence-based and consider the benefits and risks for individuals and society," said Dr Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of the World Health Organisation and co-author of The Lancet paper.
The experts also note that even if antibody levels wane over time, it does not necessarily mean that protection against severe disease will drop. Other parts of the immune system may still be protecting against severe disease, they argue.
It is therefore more sensible to focus effort on boosting vaccination in areas of low uptake. In several parts of London, for example, only around half of residents have had two doses.
Even in Oxford where the AstraZeneca jab was developed, only 55 per cent of residents have had two jabs, and the ONS figures show that people are still at risk after just one vaccine.
