Covid 19 coronavirus: Grim prediction for Victoria's case spike

Police and ADF personnel patrol the Treasury Gardens in Melbourne. Photo / News Corp Australia

Victoria has recorded its worst day since the pandemic began as strict lockdowns are imposed on the state.

The state announced a new record high on Wednesday of 725 cases and 15 deaths.

Victoria's coronavirus cases are projected to continue climbing throughout August, with the state government's own estimates predicting average daily cases of 1100 at its peak.

The Victorian government's own estimates show cases staying above 1000 for eight days, and remaining above 300-a-day even with stage four restrictions scheduled to end in mid-September, The Australian reports.

Average daily new case numbers will not return to levels seen before the second outbreak until October, the estimates suggest.

Under the modelling, cases will rise to 900 by next Friday, and surpass 1000 cases for the first time on August 16.

Average daily new cases will then remain above 1000 for eight days, peaking at 1100 from August 17 to August 22, before dropping back under 800 towards the end of the month.

There are now 7227 total active cases in Victoria, 1435 of those connected to aged care.

Total number of cumulative cases is now 13,035.

Police and ADF personnel patrol the Treasury Gardens in Melbourne. Photo / News Corp Australia

Victoria has seen increasingly harsh lockdowns including mandatory mask wearing and a curfew for Melbourne residents, so the big jump in cases can feel dispiriting.

But Epidemiology Chair at Deakin University, Professor Catherine Bennett, told news.com.au "don't be thrown" by the record number of cases.

She said measures like lockdown do stop infectious people from going to work or interacting with others, which would usually lead to new outbreaks.

"What we're doing as part of lockdown won't impact the daily numbers now but it does stop the next outbreak from starting," Bennett said.

"It is going to take time for us to contain those larger outbreaks and it won't be until after these are contained that we will see change in daily reports."

Bennett pointed to continuing high numbers of cases coming from coronavirus outbreaks, which was making it harder to see the improvements linked to the lockdowns and mask wearing.

Bourke Street is almost deserted after stage 4 restrictions were introduced on Sunday night. Photo / News Corp Australia

"The thing that stands out to me when I look at all these numbers objectively, are the 249 new active aged care cases and another 164 that were linked cases," she said.

Among today's 725 cases, 164 were linked to outbreaks or complex cases, which appears to be a record.

In comparison, linked cases have hovered between 34 and 82 cases in the last couple of weeks, except for one day last week when 154 cases was recorded.

"Usually there have been about 50 linked cases a day, often they come in a batches from cluster settings and the results are published together," Bennett said.

"But this jumped to 164. This tells us this is a spike due to linked cases pushing the numbers up above what we've had the last few days.

"Combined with the 250 active cases in aged care, it helps us to see how daily numbers can be driven by existing clusters."

Bennett pointed out that as authorities follow up the close contacts of those in known clusters, there were bound to be more cases discovered.

"We have to be prepared to still see more fluctuations," she said.

"But if the new cases are linked to known clusters then that's telling us these are already at some level of containment."

Bennett said improvements in new cases of community transmission were also hard to see because of the way reporting and testing happened.

"The measures are working but it's hard to see when we have a day of hard numbers," she said.

"It's frustrating because it was hoped masks would make a difference to daily numbers but the reality is this is still not visible.

"Unfortunately with 250 active cases linked to aged care, it's hard to see a reduction of 50 cases because people are wearing masks."

A general view of Melbourne as an 8pm to 5am curfew has been introduced. Photo / Getty Images

Of Wednesday's 725 cases, 561 remain under investigation.

Separately, authorities have now identified 1435 active cases linked to aged care, which is an increase of 249 cases since the day before.

Looking at the bigger picture, Bennett said Victoria was still tracking down and the result was still part of the "flattened curve".

"Today' numbers feel like a punch in the stomach but they don't change the trend," she said.

"A lot of the cases are linked to outbreaks, but the number has shocked us as it has reminded us that the coronavirus outbreak continues to be a big thing."