Fewer than 6 per cent of the French population will have contracted the coronavirus by the time the country starts lifting its lockdown next month, according to a study which also warns of the high risk of a "second wave" unless social distancing is maintained.
The findings by the Pasteur Institute confirm the "massive impact" of nationwide confinement in place since March 17, which it estimates means only 3.7 million people - 5.7 per cent of the population - will have been infected by May 11, when lifting the lockdown begins.
In a "snapshot" of France by national research institute Inserm, experts estimate that the average number of people infected by each person carrying the coronavirus fell from 3.3 on March 17, before lockdown, to 0.5 now - an 84 per cent drop.
But while effective in preventing the collapse of the health system, confinement poses a major problem, the institute warns, stating: "Our results suggest that without a vaccine, group immunity will be insufficient alone to avoid a second wave at the end of lockdown. Efficient control measures must be maintained beyond May 11."
France's death toll this week passed 20,000. The study, which put the death rate from those infected with the coronavirus at 0.5 per cent, came as France's education minister announced that children would gradually return to school over three weeks, starting with primary schools on May 11.
