Counting cost of deadly hurricanes

MIAMI - The busiest and costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record finally ends today but meteorologists say it may be years before the tropical Atlantic settles down.

US National Hurricane Centre director Max Mayfield warned there was only six months to prepare for the next season, which could be as bad.

"You bet I'm worried about next year, and several years after that. It's reality. We've got to deal with that."

Records fell like tree branches during the 2005 hurricane season, with 26 tropical storms, besting the old record of 21 set in 1933. Thirteen strengthened into hurricanes, topping the old record of 12 in 1969.

"These are double or triple the number we would see in an average season," said National Oceanic meteorologist Gerry Bell.

Hurricane Katrina blasted into the record books when it submerged New Orleans and bulldozed the Mississippi coast in late August, causing at least US$80 billion ($115.5 billion) of damage, making it the worst natural disaster ever to strike the United States.

The monster storm killed at least 1300 people, the most in the US since 1928. Hurricane Stan was deadlier, killing up to 2000 people with torrential rains that triggered mudslides and floods in Central America in October.

"Within all the record-breaking statistics of the season, there are epic human impacts ... suffering on a very large scale," Mayfield said.

Forecasters had warned that 2005 would be hyperactive because hurricanes feed on warm seas, and ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic region have warmed by 1 to 2C.

The upper atmospheric winds that can shear off the tops of cyclones have been mostly absent for the past few years, so hurricanes that form are more likely to persist.

Meteorologists said those conditions were part of naturally occurring cycles that alternately produce low-and high-activity periods, each lasting 20 to 30 years.

The current high-activity period began in 1995 and could last another decade or longer, Bell said. Not only were there more and stronger storms, but wind patterns off Africa steered more of them westward across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, increasing the number that hit land this year.

The US weather agencies have asked Congress for a US$50 million funding increase next year to pay for additional research flights into storms to improve forecast techniques.

They have improved in the last 15 years at forecasting where a storm will go, but are often stymied in their attempts to predict how strong it will be when it gets there.

Coastal residents often ignore evacuation orders if they expect a weak hurricane, which leaves them vulnerable if it intensifies rapidly near shore. And if a strong storm fizzles near shore, those who flee inland to escape it may be tempted to ignore evacuation orders next time.

"We almost always overforecast on rapid development and underforecast on rapid weakening," Mayfield said.

Forecasters expected 2005 to encourage people to evacuate. "I think we have people's attention after this year," Mayfield said.

Power in numbers

* Most tropical storms

26 in 2005 (so far). The old record was 21 storms, set in 1933.

* Most hurricanes

13 hurricanes, with top sustained winds of at least 119km/h. The old record was 12, set in 1969.

* Category 5 hurricanes

3 hurricanes - Katrina, Rita and Wilma - reached Catagory 5 with sustained winds over 294km/h. Only 1960 and 1961 had more than one Category 5 storm previously.

* Most powerful storm

Hurricane Wilma's briefly dropped to 882 millibars, the lowest ever in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin.

* Costliest hurricane Katrina caused at least US$80b of damage. Previously 1992's Andrew was most costly, causing US$26.5b of damage.