Ivory Coast has been plunged back into civil war after a slow-burning election crisis developed into violence.
Forces loyal to the internationally recognised President-elect, Alassane Ouattara, are poised to take the capital but the fighting threatens to provoke a humanitarian crisis as civilians seek refuge in public buildings or flee over the border into Liberia.
Laurent Gbagbo, defying the international community by refusing to relinquish power, has appealed for a ceasefire. Four months of often violent stalemate ended this week when Ouattara's forces launched a three-pronged offensive.
Heavy fighting has flared in some areas while Gbagbo loyalists in the army have withdrawn. The town of Yamoussoukro fell on Wednesday but more important is commercial hub Abidjan, the capital in all but name, where both presidential rivals are based.
Crucial to the outcome is the advance of pro-Ouattara soldiers on the economically vital port city of San Pedro.
Alex Vines from the London-based Chatham House think-tank said the capture of the port would give Ouattara's supporters a share of the cocoa trade and leave his opponent unable to pay the army and civil service. However, a swift military victory for the rebels remained unlikely, analysts said, as did any prospect of Gbagbo accepting offers of a retreat into exile.
"Don't underestimate the Ivorian military and the paramilitary police," said Vines, who warned the regime still had a monopoly on air power.
After 10 years in power Gbagbo, formerly a left-wing professor in Paris, has wealthy backers who stand to lose a fortune if his rival assumes power.
Analysts also point to the influence of the hardline first lady Simone Gbagbo, who is reported to dominate her husband and has been investigated by the United Nations over alleged involvement in human rights abuses.
Nearly 500 people have been killed since the electoral turmoil in November, but much of the fighting has been limited to Abidjan, now carved into warring neighbourhoods.
Ouattara has set up a parallel administration from a besieged hotel in the city, where he is protected by international peacekeepers.
Fears were mounting over the fate of as many as 30,000 people at a Catholic mission in Duekoue, in the west of the country. The mission has been overrun by migrant workers fleeing the fighting.
"We're hearing the fighting ... in front of the church and people are inside the church and they are running around inside," a priest told the BBC.
The humanitarian situation on the border with Liberia was described as "desperate" by aid workers there. As many as 4700 Ivorian refugees were sharing just 10 pit latrines, said Joe Mansary from the Catholic charity Cafod. Up to 600 people were streaming across the border every day
The world's leading cocoa producer has been effectively split between the Muslim-majority north and the predominantly Christian south since an army mutiny in 2002.
A lengthy internationally sponsored peace effort secured the first presidential election in a decade late last year. But the prospects for peace quickly disappeared as the incumbent used his appointees in the constitutional court to overturn the outcome.
African Union attempts to mediate in the crisis have foundered on Gbagbo's refusal to accept his poll defeat and take a junior role in a unity government.
- INDEPENDENT
Civil war reignites as rival leaders fight for final control
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.