Political hacks deduced Boris Johnson genuinely wanted a deal but he did not believe he could actually get one. AP photo / Frank Augstein
Political hacks deduced Boris Johnson genuinely wanted a deal but he did not believe he could actually get one. AP photo / Frank Augstein
COMMENT
Looking at Big Ben, encased in scaffolding, it is difficult to avoid the metaphor: "British politics – under repair". The debate around Brexit has consumed the country, paralysing government, dividing families, and pushing metaphors through the looking glass.
Despite passing its second reading on Wednesday morning (NZ time), PrimeMinister Boris Johnson then immediately lost the vote to allow his Brexit deal to be sped through Parliament by Halloween. His desperate race to achieve Brexit "do or die" by October 31 has finally been lost. While the deal was not defeated, Brexit must now be delayed.
Considering Brexit's track record of the weird and not so wonderful, the fact that Johnson has been thwarted from meeting his self-imposed deadline on a technicality seems oddly fitting.
But the fact that there is a deal at all was unimaginable at the beginning of October. So how did the UK get here?
Just over two weeks ago, a phone call between Johnson and German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly descended into a row, with a Downing St source saying shortly after that a deal was "essentially impossible".
The call seemed to finally lay bare that the two sides' red lines would never meet. No deal was the only available form of Brexit. Almost every analysis predicted that this would lead to food and medicine shortages, economic hardship and, in Northern Ireland, even possible violence.
Yet, within 48 hours, Johnson was strolling with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar through the grounds of an Elizabethan manor, all of a sudden agreeing that they could "see a pathway to a deal". A week later, there was one.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar arrives for an EU summit on October 17 after Britain and the European Union reached a new tentative Brexit deal. AP photo / Julien Warnand
It is difficult to exaggerate just how unexpected this was. The EU had said for months that it would not reopen Theresa May's deal. Even if it did, it was not like anyone was offering a viable solution to the Irish border problem. On becoming Prime Minister in July, political hacks had deduced that while Johnson genuinely wanted a deal, he did not believe he could actually get it.
The existence of this new deal then is a significant achievement in itself. And yet, to shower Johnson with praise would be disingenuous. There is a heavy irony that the deal was only reached because Parliament had tied Johnson's hands in September, ruling out the possibility of no deal by October 31, and forcing him back to the negotiating table.
Whether it is a good deal is another question. Theresa May's hated "backstop" has been replaced, but only by putting an effective, if not legal, customs border between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland, something Johnson had previously promised never to do.
Both sides compromised, and both can claim victory. The EU can declare to have protected its market; the Conservatives can assert that it is not separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK; the reality is something of a fudge, but a fudge that could well pass through Parliament.
The implications of this fudge are momentous. The deal keeps Northern Ireland more closely tied to the EU than the rest of the UK. It is easily conceivable that this could, over time, distance it from the UK and lead to a united Ireland.
More immediately, Scottish calls for independence are growing. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, and a recent poll for the Sunday Times Scotland found support for Scottish independence had risen to 50 per cent. The map of the British Isles could look very different in a generation's time.
If this deal passes, the consequences will also impact on what comes next. The deal only specifies how the UK is to leave the EU. The UK is still to negotiate what its relationship with the EU will be after Brexit. The Government does not have a majority, so an election before that negotiation is inevitable.
Making predictions of political outcomes in the Brexit era has proven to be a fool's errand, but polls suggest a Conservative victory.
This would not just mean another five years of Tory government. It would decide what Britain's future relationship with the EU would be. While Labour wants a close relationship, Johnson prefers a more distant one, meaning that the result of any election will affect the UK for decades to come.
Behind the construction at Westminster, tensions are high. Brexit fatigue and frustration are widespread. Actions of those on both sides of the divide have done untold damage to the integrity of British politics. The ramifications for trust in not just politicians, but Parliament, could affect the UK for decades.
But the atmosphere created by this new deal is decidedly different from Theresa May's. May's deal never had a realistic prospect of passing – it lost its first vote by 230. This deal does.
Christian Smith. Photo / Supplied
In the wake of Johnson's timetable defeat, what happens next is up to how long the EU decides to delay Brexit. Delay for a few weeks, and the deal will be back before the House soon. A few months, and there will likely be an election before Christmas.
Either way, Johnson's new deal means that it may finally be decision time in the Brexit saga.
Big Ben's repairs are due to be completed in 2021. God forbid that this debate is still going on then.
• Christian Smith is a New Zealand journalist and lawyer based in London
