Chirac's head on the block over EU constitution

PARIS - President Jacques Chirac is taking one of the biggest gambles in a long political career in his belated effort to persuade French voters to back a proposed constitution for the European Union.

With little more than six weeks left to the referendum and all surveys pointing to a "no" outcome, Chirac has thrown himself into a campaign that will determine not only the shape and course of the EU, but his own place in the history books.

Some wonder if the 72-year-old President may even be obliged to step down, two years ahead of schedule, if his bid fails.

That possibility was sketched by Nicolas Sarkozy, former Interior Minister and now head of Chirac's UMP party, who wondered out loud whether "we are in a situation that bears resemblance to 1969," when Charles de Gaulle quit as head of state after failing to win approval for reform of the French Senate.

Six months ago, nobody could have predicted the pickle that Chirac, France and the EU itself find themselves in.

Among the political elite, intellectuals and media people, it was a foregone conclusion that France, a founder member of the EU, would approve the draft charter on May 29. The constitution packages several other EU treaties and will streamline decision-making.

But vigorous campaigning by the National Front, the Communists and a dissident faction of the Socialist Party, claiming that the constitution is a sellout to unbridled capitalism, have shifted the public mood.

The latest polls give support for the "no" camp at 54 per cent, against 46 per cent for the "yes" faction, among those expressing a voting opinion. "It's no longer a 'no' voiced by people who feeling a bit grumpy, it's a 'no' rooted in conviction," said Pierre Giacometti, director of the Ipsos survey institute.

Rejection by France would be the signal to other countries to follow suit, not only dooming the charter but also plunging the EU into a political crisis and possibly a decision-making deadlock.

Step one in Chirac's strategy is a live television appearance today. Other TV appearances are likely in the coming weeks, along with tours of the provinces to shore up support.

The question, though, is whether relentless pressing of the flesh and patting of cows will be enough to counter his perceived arrogance.

Even Chirac loyalists are complaining that the President signed up to a whole string of EU initiatives over several years but never bothered to sell them or explain them to the public. He is paying the price.