By Andrew Perrin
Herald correspondent
Taipei, Taiwan With Taiwan's historic presidential election just weeks away, the storm cloud that is China is again closing in on the island.
The timing of the release of a cabinet policy paper in Beijing on Monday, which threatened the use of military force against Taiwan if it drags its feet on the question of reunification, has been read here as a clear attempt to influence the election and remind the three leading candidates in the race that any move toward independence would result in war.
Fresh in everyone's minds here is the experience of the 1996 election when China, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province, began firing test missiles into the Taiwan Strait, the 160km wide body of water that separates the island from the mainland.
It was an intimidation tactic meant to steer voters away from President Lee Teng-hui; the island's first native Taiwanese president who China believed was fanning the flames of independence.
The tactic backfired after the US sent its powerful Seventh Fleet into the region, and voters, emboldened by Washington's support for its fledgling democracy, duly handed Mr. Lee a convincing victory.
This time around, with Taiwan's economy booming and stability more important than ever to the island's 22 million people, the leading candidates have taken no chances by putting forward splittist policies that may infuriate Beijing in the leadup to the March 18 poll.
The man China fears most, Chen Shui-bian, the leader of the largest opposition party on the island, and a consistent leader in public opinion polls to win the tight three-way race, has performed contortions in recent weeks to renounce his once vocal support for a referendum on independence.
"Any attempts to change the current independence status quo cannot be decided by any one political leader," he said. "We need compromise [with China] based on goodwill, so to build up a relationship based on mutual trust."
A thinly veiled attack on Mr. Chen in Beijing's state-owned People's Daily newspaper on Monday suggests communist party leaders are not buying his new line.
"It's an attempt to deceive Taiwanese with beautiful words," said the editorial.
Analysts here believe the release of the white paper will help the other two candidates, in particular independent candidate James Soong who favors eventual reunification and eschews any calls for independence.
Mr. Soong, a former heavyweight in the ruling Kuomintang party who last year split with his past to run as an independent candidate, has in recent weeks been hit hard by allegations that he embezzled millions of dollars in campaign funds during his run for provincial governor in 1994.
Before the scandal hit, Mr. Soong was a consistent leader in the opinion polls and even now only marginally trails Mr. Chen, with the vice president Lien Chan of the ruling Kuomintang trailing just behind in third place.
"James Soong needed a boost and this is it," said a director of Mr. Soong's campaign team, who wished to remain anonymous. "Instead of launching missiles, this time they are releasing policy papers to influence voters."
Philip Yang, a political analyst at the National Taiwan University in Taipei, interpreted the policy paper as a reminder to candidates not to go down the path of outgoing President Lee, who last July controversially put an end to the ambiguous, but convenient, 'One China' policy and redefined relations with the mainland as 'special state-to-state' in nature.
"This is a direct response to President Lee," said Mr. Yang. "Beijing is reiterating to the US and Taipei that 'One China' is not dead and its policy for reunification of 'one country, two systems', still exists as the framework for any future talks."
CHINA-TAIWAN-THREAT
CHINESE MEDIA REPEAT TAIWAN INVASION THREAT
Beijing, Feb 22 Reuters - Chinese newspapers reported on Tuesday an ultimatum to Taiwan to begin talks on reunification with the mainland or face war, but did not highlight the dramatic threat issued in a cabinet paper.
An analyst at China's leading think-tank said he did not believe Monday's ultimatum indicated Beijing had decided on a timetable for reunification.
``It's not today, it's not tomorrow,'' said Liu Hong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
He said the threat was aimed at forcing Taiwan to ``recognise a sense of urgency to resolve the issue''.
The threat to use ``drastic measures, including military force'' if Taiwan dragged its heels indefinitely on talks was the most startling part of an 11,000-word policy ``white paper'' issued by the State Council, or cabinet.
It appeared to be designed to pile pressure on candidates and voters ahead of Taiwan's March 18 presidential elections, in which relations with China have emerged as a key issue.
Opinion polls in Taiwan have shown repeatedly most residents favour the status quo but only because an outright declaration of independence would risk war. There is almost no support for giving China any political say in Taiwan's affairs.
In recent years, China has threatened military action only under two circumstances if Taiwan declared independence or in the event of foreign invasion of the island, which Beijing regards as a renegade province.
Chinese analysts said the threat in the white paper was not entirely new, and the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping spoke of unspecified ``non-peaceful'' action if the reunification issue remained unresolved.
But the analysts said Beijing had never before formally spelled this out as policy.
Chinese leaders have previously also threatened invasion if Taiwan developed nuclear weapons, or if unrest broke out on the island.
Still, in the past few years, Chinese policy pronouncements have stuck to the more narrow formulation that war was inevitable only if Taiwan split away, or if there was a foreign invasion.
``This is formally and clearly spelling it out,'' said Liu.
The People's Daily, flagship of the Communist Party, published the full text of the white paper.
A front-page editorial hailed the document and said reunification was a ``sacred goal'' and a ``righteous cause''.
But it stopped short of repeating the threat, saying only that peaceful reunification would ``become impossible'' if Taiwan authorities dragged their feet indefinitely.
It said Beijing ``hoped and believed'' the island's residents yearned for peace and would join with Beijing to ``block all moves to split the motherland''.
``The Chinese government will be forced to adopt necessary measures to crush the splittist schemes of 'Taiwan independence' and safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity,'' the editorial said.
In a clear swipe at Chen Shui-bian, standard-bearer of Taiwan's main opposition Democratic Progressive Party which openly espouses independence, the editorial attacked people who ``attempt to use beautiful words to confuse and poison the people's minds''.
Such people call for peace with China on the one hand but espouse independence on the other, it said.
The editorial said China hoped Taiwan residents would ``see clearly the lies and make a wise decision''.
It slammed the United States for what it called interfering in China's internal affairs by selling arms to Taiwan.
And, it denounced the US House of Representatives for voting in favour of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which would establish direct military communications between Washington and Taipei and expand US training of Taiwan military officers.
In 1996, China menaced Taiwan with war games in the run-up to the island's first direct presidential elections, provoking a backlash that handed Lee Teng-hui a landslide victory.
Next month's election has turned into a close race between three leading candidates, including Chen.
Lien Chan of the ruling Nationalist Party has called for closer ties with China, including direct trade, regular summits and a ``hot line'' between Taipei and Beijing. Independent James Soong has also been accommodating of China.
However, none of the candidates has suggested Taipei should open discussions on reunification.
China sticks oar into Taiwan poll
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