KEY POINTS:
China will be eager to fill the diplomatic vacuum left by countries such as New Zealand and Australia as they apply sanctions to Fiji's military regime, say political analysts.
Representatives of the Chinese and Taiwanese embassies in Suva are taking a hands-off approach and not publicly judging the actions of Commodore Frank Bainimarama.
Other countries like New Zealand have strongly condemned the military takeover and are freezing aid grants to Fiji and imposing other sanctions.
Fei Mingxing, deputy commissioner of the Chinese Embassy in Fiji, was reluctant to comment and told the Herald what was happening was the "internal affairs" of Fiji.
China's rival, Taiwan, which has a trade office in Suva, is similarly avoiding making a stand.
Associate Professor John Henderson, a Pacific politics expert from Canterbury University, said China had helped to fill aid gaps after previous coups.
"It will take advantage of the situation to increase its presence in the region ... it won't say as much, but watch what it does."
Fiji supports the one-China policy and already benefits by millions of dollars of assistance in various forms.
In April Beijing announced a wide-ranging package of economic aid to South Pacific island countries including preferential loans worth about US$375 million ($549 million) over three years.
A year ago Commodore Bainimarama visited Beijing at the invitation of the People's Liberation Army. He has been quoted as saying the Fijian armed forces were ready to work with China to further promote friendly co-operation and would continue to adhere to the one-China policy.
Professor Henderson said China would want to increase its ties and assistance to Fiji, with lasting long-term consequences, and Taiwan might also attempt to gain some advantage out of the situation.
While that might be an unintended result of sanctions by New Zealand, it was not a strong enough argument to not apply them.
He also warned that Chinese businesses might be a target "if things turned nasty" in Fiji.
The Chinese population was growing rapidly, mainly through illegal immigration. In that case China would be concerned for the wellbeing of its people and might then want to play a more direct role.
Dr Steven Ratuva, a Fijian governance expert from the University of South Pacific, agreed China would make the most of the crisis.
"China is always ready to prey in such circumstances. It will probably be happy to move in to fill the vacancy left by Australia and New Zealand ... chequebook diplomacy, they normally do that."
Dr Ratuva said ethnic tensions might increase, depending on how the situation evolved in the next few days.
There was already a perception that Indo-Fijians supported the Army, which could create a backlash from Fijian nationalists. But in reality, he said, many Indo-Fijians were against the measures taken by the military, even if they might have been sympathetic to their motives.
Sanjay Ramesh, an Indo-Fijian political scientist in Sydney, said there was a risk Indo-Fijians could be drawn into the conflict. Comments by them on talkback radio before the coup in support of the Army might arouse Fijian nationalist sentiments.
