Two Chinese SU-30 fighter jets take off from an unspecified location to fly a patrol over the South China Sea. Photo / AP
Two Chinese SU-30 fighter jets take off from an unspecified location to fly a patrol over the South China Sea. Photo / AP
China will be capable of mounting a "full scale" invasion of Taiwan in three years' time, the island's defence chief warned on Wednesday, describing tensions between Taipei and Beijing as at their worst in more than 40 years.
Chiu Kuo-cheng also warned of the growing danger of an accidental "misfire" across the sensitive Taiwan Strait that could suddenly escalate hostilities.
His comments came after Joe Biden, the US president, said earlier on Wednesday that he had "made clear" to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that Beijing should not seek to change the status quo on Taiwan.
The last four days have seen a record-breaking stretch of some 150 Chinese military aircraft flying into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) – the buffer zone next to its territorial airspace.
"For me as a military man, the urgency is right in front of me," said Chiu, the defence minister.
"By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration."
He made the remarks to a parliamentary committee reviewing a $8.6 billion military spending budget for home-made weapons including land-based missile systems and warships.
Graph / Taiwan Ministry of National Defense
Chiu's comments reflect a growing consensus that the threat of Beijing launching an attack to annex the island is increasingly imminent, although military analysts are divided over the likely timetable.
China's armed forces are untested, which many believe is a major factor preventing Xi from making an immediate move on Taiwan.
But it has not stopped Beijing from putting on increasingly aggressive displays of its military might.
On Monday, 56 planes - including 38 J-16 fighter jets and 12 H-6 bombers - flew near the southwest of the island, prompting Taipei to demand Beijing stop its "irresponsible provocative actions".
The Chinese Communist Party claims Taiwan as part of China, even though it has never ruled there, and has repeatedly threatened to invade if Taipei does not agree to unification.
Taiwan currently operates as an independent country, with its own democratically elected government, military, currency and foreign policy, although it does not have full sovereign nation status in many international organisations such as the UN.
Two Chinese SU-30 fighter jets take off from an unspecified location to fly a patrol over the South China Sea. Photo / AP
Writing in an op-ed in Foreign Affairs magazine on Tuesday, Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's president, said: "The people of Taiwan have made clear to the entire world that democracy is non-negotiable. Amid almost daily intrusions by the PLA, our position on cross-strait relations remains constant: Taiwan will not bend to pressure."
Her government would "continue to express our openness to dialogue with Beijing", she added, as long as it is "in a spirit of equality and without political preconditions".
Taiwan honor guards perform during a national day rehearsal in Taipei. Photo / Twitter
The United States, Taiwan's main arms supplier and guarantor of the island's security, has confirmed its "rock-solid" commitment to Taiwan and also cautioned China to "cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure".
Biden said on Wednesday that during a call last month with Xi - their first talks in seven months - he "made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement".
He also did not specify which agreement, but appeared to be referring to Washington's long-standing "One China Policy", which puts its formal ties with Beijing over its informal ties with Taipei, but does not recognise China's sovereignty claims over the island.
Washington's position has angered Beijing, which insists Taiwan - as well as Hong Kong and Macau - are all inalienable parts of a single "China" and has accused the US of raising tensions by sending its warships through the international waters of the Taiwan Strait.
The US policy is based on the so-called three Joint Communiques, the Six Assurances, and the Taiwan Relations Act which states the future of Taiwan must be resolved peacefully and be agreeable to its people. The act guarantees the US will provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
But the vagueness in Biden's latest statement stoked some consternation among Taiwan experts.
"The imprecision with which Biden speaks about Taiwan is unsettling," tweeted Julian Ku, a professor at Hofstra University School of Law.
The imprecision with which Biden speaks about Taiwan is unsettling. “I’ve spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we’ll abide by the Taiwan agreement. We made it clear that I don’t think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement.” https://t.co/lkp6rkaJrS
"Biden's use of the word "agreement" is problematic. The US doesn't really have an agreement with China on Taiwan. But China thinks there is an agreement and keeps demanding the US abide by it. So this statement is not great," he said.
Drew Thompson, visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said Biden's informal manner in this case did not fit well with the complexities of US-China relations.
"It's always better to stick to the mantra of the US One China Policy," he said.
"Unfortunately, he did not follow the mantra and because of the sensitivities and the deep differences on the issue it causes concern."
Beijing may seek to capitalise on Biden's lack of precision, he added.
An expected meeting later today between Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser and Yang Jiechi, China's top diplomat in Switzerland would be a chance to "set the record straight" Thompson said.
