KEY POINTS:
Vladimir Putin's Russia is not a totalitarian state and its current rift with the West is not yet a new Cold War.
There is no gulag filled with political prisoners, no official censorship, no proxy wars being fought in the Third World.
But under Putin, the Kremlin has
taken control of crucial industries. It has extended its control to Russia's far-flung provinces. Nominally independent institutions, including the courts, the media and Parliament, have been brought to heel. Abroad, Putin has challenged Western policies. The Kremlin has been accused by its enemies of waging a covert cyberwar against Estonia, of helping to rig Ukraine's 2004 elections and of ordering the killing of a former KGB officer in London - allegations Russian officials have denied.
By making the Kremlin once again Russia's sole centre of power, analysts say, Putin has also resurrected some of the weaknesses that plagued the tsarist and communist systems.
Putin sometimes issues orders that, filtered through Russia's layers of bureaucracy, are never executed.
A topdown system of government that tries to control the media and local elections, critics say, may find itself pursuing disastrous or unpopular policies. Russia's past absolutist governments were also faced with periodic succession crises. Moscow's decision to use polls to ratify the Kremlin's choice of leadership, rather than permit an open competition, has created a crisis rare for democracies.
Putin presides over different Kremlin factions, settling disputes and dividing the corporate and political spoils. The Kremlin could split over such issues as how far Russia should go in confronting the West and consolidating control of industries.
If Putin stays in office, some think he will become President for life. The pressure to stay would grow with each passing year, to maintain a balance between bitterly divided factions.
"Putin understands very well the pitiless laws of the system he has built up step by step over the past seven years," political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky wrote. "If he takes that final step of agreeing to a third term, he is accepting a life sentence ... The darkness at noon of the Kremlin will engulf him forever."
- AP