Canberra braced for Chinese backlash

Australia is awaiting Beijing's reaction to the publication of secret diplomatic cables detailing a conversation in which Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd told United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that military force might have to be used against China.

The cables, in which Rudd also advocated the creation of new regional bodies to contain the growth of China's power and influence, were among the documents released so far by the web-based whistleblower site WikiLeaks.

WikiLeaks' founder, Australian Julian Assange, is sought by Swedish police on rape allegations, faces demands for prosecution on national security charges in the US, and is being investigated by the Australian Federal Police for possible breaches of Australian law.

Attorney-General Robert McClelland said yesterday that while Assange was entitled to consular assistance and to return home, Canberra had obligations to the US under agreements to provide mutual assistance in the investigation of criminal law enforcement matters.

The release of the cables painting Rudd, a Mandarin-speaking former diplomat, as a hawk on China has the potential to severely embarrass Canberra.

Beijing is the nation's largest trading partner and one which Australian policy encourages as a responsible player in the Asia-Pacific region.

But Canberra also holds concerns over China's emerging power and wants to cement America's counterbalancing position in the region - delicate diplomacy complicated by territorial tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

A cable written by an American official last March detailed a meeting in Washington between Rudd, then Prime Minister, Clinton and senior officials from both countries.

According to the notes on the meeting Clinton expressed America's "deep anxiety" and asked Rudd's advice on the management of China's growing economic muscle.

Rudd described himself as a "brutal realist" on China and said that while all efforts should be made to bring China into the international community, the region should be prepared to deploy force "if everything goes wrong".

The cable also said Rudd had told Clinton that his proposed Asia Pacific Community was aimed mainly at ensuring China's dominance of the East Asia Summit did not result in a "Chinese Monroe Doctrine and an Asia without the US".

The Monroe Doctrine was a 19th century US policy defining the Western Hemisphere as America's sphere of influence and warning that intervention by European powers would be seen as acts of aggression.

The Australian Government yesterday refused to comment on the cables, but Rudd said WikiLeaks' release of the confidential documents threatened diplomacy.

"Diplomacy is done in secret because diplomacy seeks to solve problems for which there are no other public solutions [and] what is at stake here is the essence of how we deal with international problems."

But shadow foreign minister Julie Bishop said it was troubling that Rudd had advised the US to consider the use of force if other measures failed to contain China - a view that he had never expressed publicly. Analysts said Rudd's views were not surprising - but their publication was.

Australian National University international law expert Professor Don Rothwell said there were two scenarios in which Australia could be embroiled in military confrontation with China.

One was an attack by the Chinese on an Australian warship in the South China Sea relating to contested maritime claims, in which the ship would be entitled to retaliate under international law.

Or Australia could be drawn by the US into confrontation over Taiwan under the Anzus treaty, which "is not a far-fetched scenario".

John Lee, a foreign policy research fellow with the Centre for Independent Studies, said he did not believe China would be surprised at what Rudd had to say, as similar conversations would be taking place across the region.

"I think it's more that, even though China would assume this would be the case, it is very rare for it to be exposed."