KEY POINTS:
Labor may need the biggest swing since World War II and to change the nation's voting habits to win power on November 24, but week three of the election campaign closed with dark clouds over Prime Minister John Howard. ACNeilsen polling showed Labor inching a little further ahead, with a 55 per cent to 45 per cent lead that would deliver a landslide victory to Kevin Rudd.
Rudd also increased his lead over Howard as preferred prime minister.
Yet the week began with real promise for the Government. A Newspoll in the Australian had the Coalition narrowing Labor's lead to 8 percentage points - still large enough to give Howard a thrashing, but suggesting he might be able to do it one more time.
Howard had been hurt by revelations of a Cabinet split on climate change, with Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull unsuccessfully urging ratification of the Kyoto protocols because Australia was going to meet the targets anyway. Howard's stubborn refusal to ratify has helped Labor gain a real advantage on the environment, a key election issue.
Rudd hammered away at the theme, promising billions to deal with the environment. But former rock star and environment spokesman Peter Garrett blew it, committing a Labor government to a new global greenhouse gas emissions treaty even if such major polluters as China and India did not sign up. Rudd forced Garrett to recant, and promised that there would be no deal without China and India. He did not say if Garrett would keep his job if Labor won.
Howard's campaign was not helped by his henchmen. Treasurer Peter Costello, who would become prime minister some time in the next term if Howard wins, failed to score any points in his debate with Labor's Wayne Swan. Worse, a Newspoll showed 30 per cent of voters were less likely to vote for the Government because of the deal to pass leadership to Costello.
The day after the Costello-Swan debate, Health Minister Tony Abbott was to debate Labor shadow minister Nicola Roxon.
He got held up in Melbourne announcing a A$444 million ($535 million) health policy with Howard and arrived 30 minutes late. The debate had started without him, handing Roxon a bonus national exposure.
Abbott later swore at Roxon, was forced to apologise for insulting a nationally admired and terminally ill asbestos campaigner, and had to put on hold a much-vaunted takeover of a Tasmanian hospital.
Labor holds a huge majority of the youth and mortgage belt vote, plus all but one state, reducing Howard's stronghold to grey voters and Western Australia. And throughout, the billions of dollars of promises kept rolling from both sides: for education, roads, health and the environment.
