Bush's European friends seek hard evidence against Iraq

By CATHERINE FIELD

PARIS - Far from following the Americans' battle cry for war on Iraq, Washington's European allies seem to be digging in their heels.

Even Britain - hitherto a loyal supporter of President George W. Bush - looks as if it may have doubts.

Although Washington has stepped up pressure for a regime change in Baghdad, the major European states want to explore every political avenue before using force to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

And they are signalling to Bush that if Iraq is the big threat he says it is, the evidence has to be convincing.

"Everyone in the European Union agrees that we must pursue diplomatic efforts as far as possible before deciding on military action," said an EU diplomat in Brussels.

The most vocal critic of the military option is German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who faces legislative elections next month and is desperate to keep his Social Democrats united. A foreign war would tear the party in two like no other issue.

Schroeder warned that the fight against terrorism was still unfinished, and it would be a mistake if Bush declared Saddam's overthrow the next phase in that campaign.

"It would not be comprehended as a means of defence, and could destroy the international alliance against terrorism," he said.

France, forever a thorn in America's side for its assertive foreign policy, has made clear it rejects any military force against Iraq at this stage, while Italy, whose Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, is a big fan of Bush, has made its own reluctance obvious by remaining silent on the issue.

In Britain, Prime Minister Tony Blair, who backs rugged action against Iraq, has been forced to ease his position in the face of rising opposition, including criticism from within his Labour Party.

War with Iraq "is not imminent and it is not inevitable", said Blair's Minister for Middle East Affairs, Mike O'Brien. Conflict could be avoided if Saddam allowed in UN inspectors to vet his alleged attempts to build an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons.

"Nobody wants war for the sake of it. The ball is now in Saddam's court."

The European perception is strongly coloured by the events unfolding on its doorstep in the Middle East.

Many decision-makers privately suspect that Washington is ignorant about the enormous resentment stoked by its pro-Israeli policy and that it cares little about the wider repercussions if this fragile region is plunged into turmoil.

"The US has the military means to change the regime in Iraq by force," said German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, a Green. "But do they understand that it would imply a total reorganisation of the Middle East, not only militarily but, above all, politically?"

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin said it would be impossible to muster support for an attack on Iraq as long as the Arab-Israeli problem remained unresolved.

"The more pressure we put on the Iraqi regime, the more we have to advance in parallel in efforts to find a peaceful solution in the Middle East."

European unity is never strong on matters of foreign policy and war, and the traditional instinct is to look to the US for leadership.

But unless hard evidence surfaces that Saddam is a big threat, any action by Nato as a military alliance seems quite out of the question.

Indeed, the unease at the moment is so palpable it is almost inconceivable to think of a rebuilding of the European component of the 1991 Gulf War.

European hesitation may also be stoked by the sense that the Bush Administration itself is far from united about which path to take, and hawks and doves are fighting for Bush's ear.

As US resolve to see Saddam ousted hardened, Vice-President Dick Cheney yesterday spoke to Iraqi opposition leaders by video conference.

Representatives of six Iraqi opposition groups, joined by Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, met for 30 minutes in Washington to confer with Cheney, who was at his home in Wyoming, on plans to implement a regime change in Baghdad.

After the meeting, Sharif Ali Bin Al-Hussein, who represents the Constitutional Monarchy Movement, said the Iraqi military was ready to revolt. "There is nobody left in Iraq who believes in Saddam Hussein," he said. "They only fear his apparatus of terror. With the help of the US, that apparatus of terror can be dismantled."

The opposition leaders met on Saturday with Secretary of State Colin Powell and senior State Department and Pentagon officials.

But in Iraq, words of defiance were hurled against the United States and its potential strike.

Saddam warned that Iraqis would never surrender if attacked.

Deliberately echoing the famous remarks of Britain's wartime leader Winston Churchill, Saddam said in an interview with the Mail on Sunday: "If they come, we are ready. We will fight them on the streets, from the rooftops, from house to house. We will never surrender."

Feature: Iraq

UNSCOM

Iraq Action Coalition (against Iraq sanctions

Arab net - Iraq resources

Iraq Oil-for-Food programme

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq