Bush policies may not get past split Congress

George W. Bush will enter the White House with a programme of promises distinctly to the right of those of Bill Clinton.

But, faced with a Congress split just as narrowly as the presidential Electoral College, his chances of pushing through even a fraction of his campaign agenda look slim.

Even before November 7, one academic, Bruce Buchanan, of the University of Texas, predicted that 75 per cent of Mr Bush's programme would be "dead on arrival" because of scepticism in Congress about his massive proposed tax cut and his plans to privatise social security. Now it could be 90 or even 95 per cent.

The Democrats will not let Mr Bush appoint right-wing extremists to the Supreme Court, will prevent him spending billions on a geopolitically risky missile defence system and will block his school voucher scheme.

A Bush Administration will have to come up with some kind of tax cut for the sake of appearances, but it may be no more significant than the one Mr Bush passed in Texas - a modest reduction in property taxes that was immediately offset in most areas by increases in rates.

For the record, however, his policies cover several touchy subjects including abortion, racial preference programmes, defence spending, gun control and opening Alaska's wildlife preserve to oil and gas exploration.

Foreign affairs will be one area where he will be watched, after a television reporter sprang a pop quiz on him last year asking him to name four foreign leaders. He could manage only one.

ABORTION


Mr Bush opposes abortions except in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the pregnant woman.

He would sign legislation outlawing "partial birth" or late abortion and cut federal funds for family planning services as well as banning overseas aid for organisations providing abortion services.

But he would not try to ban the recently approved RU-486 abortion drug.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM


He wants to raise campaign contribution limits and improve disclosure regulations. But he opposes legislation to ban unregulated political contributions unless union contributions are also banned.

CIVIL RIGHTS/AFFIRMATIVE ACTION


Mr Bush opposes quotas and racial preferences programmes for minorities.

CRIME


He opposes federal hate crimes legislation which would be aimed at punishing crimes motivated by racial, religious, ethnic or sexual intolerance.

He supports the death penalty. Since he became Governor of Texas, the state has executed 140 prisoners, prompting questions about his "compassionate conservative" image and a torrent of criticism over the safety of some of the convictions.

DEFENCE


Mr Bush wants to "rebuild the military power of the United States of America." He plans to increase spending on high-tech weapons and give the military better pay and conditions, seen as a remedy for falling recruitment and retention rates.

On missile defence, he would pursue ambitious programmes to protect the United States and allies from "rogue" nations, even if that meant withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia.

He would retain the "Don't ask, don't tell" policy on homosexuals in the military. Mr Gore wanted them to serve openly.

EDUCATION


Mr Bush would provide $US1500 ($3800) vouchers for students in failing schools that did not improve over three years.

He would expand charter schools and end "social promotion" to higher grades for pupils failing to meet required standards, and would encourage testing by states and boost spending on reading programmes.

ENVIRONMENT


Mr Bush opposes the Kyoto treaty on global warming which sets a framework for reducing fossil fuel emissions.

But he would give tax breaks for ethanol use and supports state efforts to reduce pollution from coal-fired power stations.

In contrast to Mr Gore, he supports opening the Alaska Arctic Wildlife Preserve to oil and gas exploration.

FOREIGN POLICY


He backs free trade but opposed the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and would withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty if necessary to pursue missile defence.

He also wants to reduce United States military involvement in international peacekeeping, take a tougher stance towards China and backs close defence ties with Taiwan.

He has also questioned the United States' military role in Bosnia and Kosovo, where 10,500 troops are taking part in peacekeeping operations.

One of his concerns is having troops in the region as an apparently permanent commitment.

GUN CONTROL


Mr Bush supports the enforcement of existing gun laws, and immediate background checks at gun shows.

But he opposes any federally mandated national registration programme and thinks child-lock safety programmes for guns should be voluntary.

HEALTHCARE


He plans to reduce the millions without medical insurance by subsidising their ability to buy private coverage. He would expand medical savings accounts and make make the cost of long-term care tax deductible.

TAXES


He proposes allowing younger Americans to set aside part of their payroll taxes for personal savings accounts that they would then invest in financial markets.

He offers a $US483 billion tax cut package over five years and would simplify the income tax system by eliminating one bracket. His proposal would cut tax rates for all Americans, in contrast with Mr Gore, who wanted to target middle and lower-income Americans.

Mr Bush estimates that a family of four with two adults and a combined income of $US50,000 will be $US2000 better off, although those with higher incomes will obviously get more benefit.

- AGENCIES

Herald Online feature: Fight for the White House

Transcript: The US Supreme Court decision

Transcript: The US Supreme Court oral arguments

Diary of a democracy in trouble

The US Electoral College

Florida Dept. of State Division of Elections

Supreme Court of Florida

Supreme Court of the United States

Democrats and Republicans wage war online