Bush plans to echo Churchill

WASHINGTON - Thwarted in his quest for an early and tough United Nations Security Council resolution against Iraq, President George W. Bush is seeking to regain the initiative by going on national prime-time television.

Bush will speak in Cincinnati, Ohio, (tomorrow 1pm NZT) carefully chosen for its "American heartland" connotations. His speech will be aimed at both the UN and Congress, which this week will debate resolutions authorising military force against Saddam Hussein's regime if it does not disarm.

The address is being seen as what one White House official called a "Churchillian" cementing of public opinion and Congress behind a coming war, trying to echo the great speeches of the British Prime Minister in 1940 and 1941.

The speech, said a White House source, will explain "why the United States is prepared to go to war". It will, he said, "be directed not only at America, but at other countries - and especially Iraq".

In a possible preview, the President devoted a second radio address to Iraq yesterday, warning of the "massive and sudden" horror Baghdad could inflict if it were not disarmed. President Saddam Hussein was "cruel and dangerous", said Bush; the day before, he called the Iraqi leader a "cold-blooded killer", a description he has used only for the September 11 terrorists.

"We hope that Iraq complies with the world's demands," he said yesterday. "If, however, the Iraqi regime persists in its defiance, the use of force may become unavoidable."

But the need for support from Security Council doubters France, Russia and China has led him recently to stress that war is a last resort, and he added: "The US does not desire military conflict ... we will never seek war unless it is essential to security and justice."

It appears Washington is reluctantly coming closer to the French position, which is that UN weapons inspectors should be sent to Iraq first, and a decision on the use of force deferred until they report back. But the Pentagon accused Iraq of exploiting the delay to hide its weapons of mass destruction.

Baghdad, for its part, urged France, Russia and China to be "brave", and not to yield to US demands.

It emerged yesterday that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has been invited by Bush to visit Washington this month, almost certainly to avoid an upsurge of Israeli-Palestinian violence during the build-up to war on Iraq.

The US has started playing down calls for "regime change" in Iraq, partly because of disagreements in the Administration about what would happen post-Saddam. Although the Pentagon sees the main exile group, the Iraqi National Congress, and its leader, Ahmad Chalabi, as key to Iraq's future, the State Department and CIA have done their utmost to discredit both Chalabi and his organisation.

This weekend, anti-war protests were held in Italy, Greece and Australia.

The Washington Post reported that US intelligence experts believe Saddam will be ousted by members of his inner circle before US forces launch a ground attack.

Faced with a US military assault and the choice of either being Saddam's successors or being imprisoned or killed in the fighting, top-ranking military officers or senior Iraqi officials likely will try to eliminate the Iraqi leader, several current and former US officials and intelligence experts told the daily.

"Someone will take action and cause it to happen," said one former high-ranking CIA officer.

The New York Times reported that Israel was ready to deploy a new missile shield to protect Tel Aviv and other major cities if they came under fire from Iraq's arsenal of Scud missiles.

Known as the Arrow, the system cost more than US$2 billion ($4.24 billion) and was partly financed by the US.

- INDEPENDENT, REUTERS and AGENCIES

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