Bush keeps three-point poll lead on Kerry

4.00pm

WASHINGTON - United States President George W. Bush held a three-point lead over Democratic rival John Kerry nationwide and slightly strengthened his leads in the vital states of Ohio and Florida, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released today.

One week before the Nov. 2 election, Bush led Kerry 49-46 per cent in the latest three-day national tracking poll of the race for the White House. Bush led the Massachusetts senator 48-45 per cent the day before.

Kerry moved ahead of Bush in Wisconsin and led the president in five of the 10 battleground state polls, with the race in Iowa a dead heat at 45 per cent each.

Bush now leads Kerry in Florida 49-45 per cent, up three points, and 46-44 per cent in Ohio, up one point. Kerry was up one point in Pennsylvania to lead Bush 49-45 per cent. All three results are within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for the state polls.

Kerry also led narrowly in Michigan, Minnesota and Colorado, while Bush had slight leads in New Mexico and Nevada.

With the campaign winding down, the national poll added voters leaning toward either Bush or Kerry into their totals for the first time, leaving only 3 per cent of likely voters undecided.

"If Kerry, as suggested, is looking to undecideds, look again -- there may not be enough left," said pollster John Zogby.

Bush's three-point lead is identical to the three-point margin he had over Democrat Al Gore in the tracking poll at the same stage of the disputed 2000 election.

Kerry still has big leads among key Democratic constituencies like African Americans and union members, but now trails Bush among women, youth and seniors.

The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved re-election, 48 per cent, was equal to those who wanted someone new. Bush's presidential performance was rated as excellent or good by 48 per cent, and 51 per cent said it was only fair or poor.

The national poll of 1,206 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.1 per cent of likely voters.

Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania and their combined 68 electoral votes are the biggest prizes remaining among toss-up states as the rivals try to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Saturday through Tuesday.

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Kerry led 49-47 per cent; Florida, Bush 49-45 per cent; Iowa, tied 45-45 per cent; Michigan, Kerry 49-44 per cent; Minnesota, Kerry 46-44 per cent; New Mexico, Bush 48-43 per cent; Nevada, Bush 49-46 per cent; Ohio, Bush 46-44 per cent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-45 per cent; and Wisconsin, Kerry 48-46 per cent.

- REUTERS