KEY POINTS:
LATIN AMERICA - Roll up and take your seats! The George and Hugo show is poised to start again. As George Bush arrives in Uruguay as part of a five-nation Latin America tour, his verbal sparring partner, Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, is scheduled to hold a rally 48km away across the River Plate in Argentina. It is unlikely either will have anything particularly pleasant to say about the other.
Despite their symbiotic relationship based on fossil fuel - Venezuela is the fourth largest supplier of oil to the US - Bush and Chavez are engaged in a battle for influence in Latin America. For once it is the US in second place, with most countries in the region headed by left-wing leaders.
For decades Washington wielded influence through bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and through direct or indirect military intervention when it saw fit. But in recent years the power of the IMF in the region has waned. In that vacuum, Chavez, bolstered by soaring oil incomes, has stepped in and offered countries an alternative source of funding and credit.
Bush's trip, which started in Brazil and which in addition to Uruguay will include stops in Mexico, Guatemala and Colombia, is part of an effort to wrest back some degree of initiative in a region the US has long considered its backyard but where its actions have often had deadly consequences.
"I think Bush is going partly to show that he has not forgotten Latin America," said Mark Weisbrot, director of the Washington-based Centre for Economic and Policy Research. "It's to show he still has allies in countries such as Mexico and Guatemala and that he has allies within governments and inside business."
Weisbrot said although Chavez and Bush may consider each other rivals, he did not believe their battle for influence could be seen in Cold War terms. Unlike the loans of the IMF, he said, Venezuela's loans in the region did not come with policy attachments.
Indeed, aside from any baiting of Bush he indulge in, the Venezuelan leader's visit to Argentina is focused on signing commercial agreements and helping a troubled dairy cooperative. Venezuela has bought billions of dollars in Argentine debt, and also supplies the country with fuel, while Argentina is developing growing agricultural links with Caracas. The two countries have issued a joint bond and Buenos Aires is also backing Venezuelan-led projects for a regional-wide bank and gas pipeline.
That is not to say Argentina has been lured by US overtures to try and isolate Venezuela politically. Last week, Argentine President Nestor Kirchner, speaking in Caracas, rejected the notion that Argentina or Brazil should "contain President Chavez" whom he called a "brother and a friend".
Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, wrote in a recent briefing paper: "The Bush Administration is being made aware that its leverage in Latin America is rapidly dissipating. Even well-meaning kinsmen found at the top in Brazil, Colombia, Chile, let alone its Central American banana republics, don't always salivate when the bell is rung."
Before he left for Latin America, Bush said he was acting to counter poverty in the region. "The trip is to remind people that we care. I do worry about the fact that some say, 'Well, the United States hasn't paid enough attention to us' or 'the United States isn't anything more than worried about terrorism'. And when, in fact, the record has been a strong record."
Critics of the US may tremble at such words. Washington has a long history of bloody intervention in the region, from Guatemala through to Chile and Nicaragua, in order to oust democratic governments it has not approved of. More recently, funds provided by the US Congress were directed to opponents of Chavez who launched a short-lived coup in 2002. Such a record may partly account for Chavez's often fiery denunciations of Bush, whom he last year called "the devil" during a speech at the UN.
- Independent
