Bush camp rattled by Kerry upsurge

By RUPERT CORNWELL

WASHINGTON - The surviving Democratic candidates are now fighting each other - but George Bush's handlers are suddenly so nervous about his re-election prospects that the interview-shy President is to make a rare, hastily arranged appearance this morning on a leading talk show.

Half overshadowed by the hue and cry of the battle for the Democratic nomination is the fact that Bush has hit the rockiest patch of his presidency - and the intelligence debacle over Iraq's alleged weapons is only one of the reasons.

Once regarded as a virtual certainty to win in November, Bush has been hit by multiple setbacks, ranging from the spiralling Budget deficit and the failure of the recovering economy to create jobs, to a renewed controversy over his military record during the Vietnam War.

The slump is apparent in a rash of polls. The President's overall approval rating has dropped to 47 per cent, from 56 per cent a month ago, while the number of those saying they would definitely vote for someone else jumped to 43 per cent, compared to just 37 per cent planning to vote for Bush in November.

Astonishingly, when the opposition party has not even settled on a challenger, two polls show Bush losing a theoretical match-up with John Kerry, the current Democratic front-runner, by margins well beyond the statistical margin of error.

Matters may quickly change when the vaunted Republican attack machine swings into action, and when the Bush-Cheney campaign starts dipping into its US$100 million-plus ($147 million) war chest - eclipsing anything the Democrats can currently muster.

But for the moment the White House is scrambling. A measure of its unease is that Bush decided to appear today not on a sycophantic outlet such as Fox News, preaching to the long-since converted, but on NBC's flagship talk show Meet the Press, hosted by Tim Russert.

Bush's most important goal was to regain his reputation as a straight talker, presenting the unvarnished truth. Not only have missing Iraqi weapons eroded his image of trustworthiness, the latest Budget forecasts, predicting a steady decline in deficits from 2004's record US$521 billion, have been assailed as a work of fiction.

Republican fiscal conservatives, appalled by how Clinton-era surpluses have been frittered away, have publicly criticised the White House's profligacy. By contrast, Democrats are showing a remarkably united front, reflecting the party's overriding goal of defeating Bush whichever candidate emerges as standard-bearer. For the moment, that man looks likely to be Kerry.

The Massachusetts Senator had decisive wins in Michigan and Washington state yesterday, moving a step closer to the nomination.

After his resurrection from the politically near-dead in Iowa, Kerry has gone from strength to strength, winning the New Hampshire primary, then five of the seven states that voted last Tuesday.

Money and endorsements are flooding in, driven by the conviction that Kerry, a decorated Vietnam war hero and 20-year Senate veteran, has the policy credentials and the national security stature to defeat Bush later this year.

His main rivals are Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and retired general Wesley Clark. Realistically, though, each must win at least one of Wednesday's (NZ time) two primaries in Virginia and Tennessee to stay in the race.

- INDEPENDENT