British scientist issues doomsday global warning

In a grim warning on climate change, the British Government's chief scientist said yesterday the world must immediately put in place measures to address global warming, even if they take decades to produce results.

Sir David King said, even by the most optimistic forecasts, carbon dioxide levels are set to rise to double what they were at the time of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century. He said that will lead to a 3C rise in temperature and if nothing is done to manage such change, few eco-systems on Earth will be able to adapt.

Up to 400 million people would find themselves at risk of hunger, because 20m-400m tonnes of cereal production will be lost, he said on BBC radio.

In Britain, the main threat will be flooding and "coastal attack" from rising sea levels.

"If you ask me where do we feel the temperature is likely to end up if we move to a level of carbon dioxide of 500 parts per million - which is roughly twice the pre-industrial [revolution] level and the level at which we would be optimistically hoping we could settle - the temperature rise could well be in excess of 3C," he said. "Yet we are saying 500 parts per million in the atmosphere is probably the best we can achieve through global agreement."

King, who has the ear of British Prime Minister Tony Blair and other key policy makers, said it was essential that the world should act now to be able to cope with such climate change.
"We don't have to succumb to a state of despondency where we say that there is nothing we can do, so let's just carry on living as per usual," he said. "It is very important to understand that we can manage the risks. What we are talking about is something that will play through over decades. We are talking 100 years or so. We need to begin that process of investment. It is going to be a major challenge for developing countries."

Blair wants a worldwide consensus on global warming that goes beyond the disputed Kyoto Protocol, and puts China and India, both economically booming, at the heart of the issue. But the United States in particular is opposed to slashing carbon dioxide emissions. In 2002, the European Union proposed limiting a rise in average global temperature to 2C.

King said the situation would be worse if the average temperature broke the 3C level.

"If we go beyond 500 parts per million, we reach levels of temperature increase and sea level rise in terms of the coming century which would be extremely difficult for world populations to manage," he said.

He criticised politicians who feel the answer lies in technologies that produce cleaner fuels, saying they ought to listen to scientists instead.

"There is a difference between optimism and [putting one's] head in the sand," he said.

"Quite clearly what we have to do as we move forward with these discussions is see that this consensus position of the scientific community is brought right into the table where the discussions are taking place."

- INDEPENDENT