KEY POINTS:
The nuclear brinkmanship between Iran and the West is expected to step up a gear amid predictions that Tehran is about to announce it has begun industrial-scale production of enriched uranium.
Iran has started installing about 3000 centrifuges, the machines that can turn uranium into fuel for nuclear reactors or bombs, at a huge plant in Natanz - a prime target if the United States or Israel decide there is no other way to stop Iran acquiring the bomb.
But the International Atomic Energy Agency believes that technological setbacks mean Iran is still years away from being able to produce enriched uranium on a big enough scale. Yet fear of imminent bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities is so strong that Robert Gates, the new US Defence Secretary, said at the weekend: "We are not planning for a war with Iran."
Yesterday a newly formed British alliance spelt out the disastrous consequences of military action against Iran while urging greater engagement with Tehran to avert "global catastrophe".
"We need a new diplomatic push at a time when the drumbeat of war is getting louder," said Brendan Cox, a spokesman for Crisis Action, which has co-ordinated the publication of a new report backed by Oxfam, the Muslim Council of Britain and other faith groups, trade unionists and a leading think-tank.
"Military action has to be the last resort," said Sir Richard Dalton, a supporter of the initiative who has spent the past four years as Britain's ambassador to Iran.
He said there was still time for negotiations.
"We have a period of months to build up diplomacy, even though it is not certain to succeed."
Cox said the coalition had learned the lessons of the Iraq war, and wanted to raise public awareness of the issues well before the "endgame" looms.
The report warns that the consequences of military action, which would cause significant civilian casualties, would destabilise the Middle East and severely undermine hopes for stability in Iraq.
It argues that the position of hardliners in Iran would be bolstered while the chances of reform within Iran would be set back at a time when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in political difficulties because of his failure to deliver on economic policies.
It predicts that other consequences of bombing would include rising oil prices and a threat of serious environmental contamination. And, a senior European diplomat said, it would be unlikely to halt Iran's nuclear programme, only delay it.
- INDEPENDENT
