Bombings could sway Spanish election

MADRID - Bombs killing nearly 200 people have injected a deadly new element into Spain's weekend election and could swing voters depending on whether the attacks were the work of Basque guerrillas or Muslim militants.

If the government's initial suspicion that ETA was behind the blasts is right, that could benefit Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's ruling Popular Party (PP) which has campaigned on its tough line against the separatist group, analysts said.

If, however, some indications al Qaeda could have been behind the attacks gain credence, many Spaniards might point a finger at the PP for stirring Muslim wrath by backing Washington and London in Iraq.

"Assuming it was ETA, the obvious emotional interpretation is this will make people back the party with the toughest line against them," politics professor Josu Mezo said.

"If it was an Islamic extremist group like al Qaeda that carried out the attack, everything would change. But it is really impossible to predict at the moment."

Moreover, mass protests called by Aznar for Friday evening under the slogan "With the Victims, With the Constitution, For the Defeat of Terrorism" were tinged with controversy.

The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), which governs in the largely autonomous region, viewed the constitutional reference as unnecessary and politically motivated, given Basque and Catalan nationalists' desire for greater home rule or independence -- a hot election issue.

But the PNV said it would march under the pro-constitution banner.

"In Spain we don't have a unifying symbol like France has with the fifth republic or the United States with the constitution. I think it's a show of generosity for the PNV to join the march," said Jose Juan Toharia, president of pollster Demoscopia.

Analysts said the unprecedented scale of the attack had shocked Spaniards so deeply their reaction at the ballot box was hard to guess.

If it was ETA, might some Spaniards in fact react on the contrary, they asked, by seeing it as evidence of the PP's failure to contain ETA? If it was al Qaeda, might that not just as well provoke a rallying round the status quo -- the government -- as a backlash because of Iraq?

Up to 90 per cent of Spaniards opposed the war a year ago and two-thirds now want troops to come home, according to polls.

COULD BIGGER TURNOUT HELP SOCIALISTS?

Socialist candidate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has vowed to pull out the 1,300 Spanish troops in Iraq if the United Nations does not take charge there by mid-year. PP candidate Mariano Rajoy is expected to follow Aznar's policies if he wins.

And with many Spaniards eager to make a public show of support for democracy and rejection of violence, could an expected higher turnout boost the opposition?

"In recent days there has been a reduction in the PP's lead. But if these brutal attacks were the work of ETA, that could logically be halted," politics professor Julian Santamaria said.

"If it's ETA, most people suppose this will benefit the PP but people are so disoriented that I find it very hard to make a prediction," he said.

All parties called off the last two days of campaigning while Spain enters a period of mourning.

For most, however, speculation about Sunday's election was far from their minds as they assimilated Thursday's horrors.

"My thoughts are with the dead now, I can't begin to think about the electoral consequences," analyst Juan Diez said. "We've never had anything as terrible as this, it's impossible to say how the Spanish people will react. It's guesswork."