Blair tipped to be preparing to capitulate

LONDON - British Prime Minister Tony Blair is preparing to climb down over his insistence that weapons of mass destruction are certain to be uncovered in Iraq.

With US President George Bush expected to agree as early as this week to the creation of an independent commission to investigate the quality of American intelligence before last year's war, MI6 could eventually be forced to share the blame for any failure to uncover the deadly arsenal of chemical and biological weapons said to have been hidden by Saddam Hussein.

Leader of the Commons Peter Hain said yesterday: "I saw evidence that was categoric on Saddam possessing chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction."

Blair and other Cabinet ministers also saw the evidence, which "informed our decision to go to topple him.

"I think we were right in doing so, but let's wait and see what the jury finds in the end."

Blair will come under pressure on the issue when he appears before the Commons liaison committee of senior backbenchers today. It is also likely to feature heavily in a Commons debate on Thursday about Lord Hutton's report into the death of scientist David Kelly.

Until now Blair has confidently argued that it is only a matter of time before inspectors find weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

But he has looked increasingly isolated as Bush moves towards an admission that the intelligence used to justify the war was flawed.

Blair is likely to stop short of conceding this week that weapons may never be found, but he will change tack by arguing that there are "legitimate questions to be answered" over the Iraq Survey Group's failure to uncover them despite an eight-month search.

After a turbulent week dominated by the dramatic Commons vote on university tuition fees and the fallout from the Hutton Report, Downing St acknowledges that the issue of weapons of mass destruction is about to return to the political centre-stage.

Tory leader Michael Howard will try to exploit Government discomfort by demanding an independent inquiry into the quality of intelligence supplied to ministers.

"It is of utmost importance that we try to find out what went wrong with the intelligence, if the intelligence community felt there were WMD, and it is now becoming clear that the weapons weren't there," he said.

The likelihood of a similar US inquiry will increase the pressure on Blair to follow suit.

Only a few days ago, Bush appeared cool to the idea of any such probe, but his position appears to have changed over the weekend.

Sources said Vice-President Dick Cheney had begun talking to members of Congress in private about setting an inquiry in motion.

Bush has never seemed more vulnerable on the issue of Iraq than he does now. He has been seriously undercut by the damning remarks about US intelligence made by David Kay, until recently head of the Iraq Survey Group, charged with getting to the bottom of the weapons matter.

Last week, Kay said the intelligence provided to the White House to justify the invasion of Iraq was "almost all wrong".

He also said he thought an inquiry into the apparent failings of American intelligence was necessary.

Trent Lott, the senior Republican senator, confirmed that the White House at least had an investigation under consideration and said he would probably support the idea.

"I may be willing to go along with an independent commission because I think it's important that we get reliable information and that we do something about it," he said.

"I think we have major problems with our intelligence community.

"We need to take a look at a complete overhaul ... I have real problems with the job they've done," said Lott.

The Kay furore eliminated any sense of relief that the Bush Administration may have felt over the mostly clean bill of health given to Blair's Government by the recently concluded Hutton inquiry.

The question still not squarely addressed on either side of the Atlantic is how intelligence provided by services in United States and Britain was apparently so wide of the mark.

Senator John McCain, of Arizona, was the first among Republican politicians to join calls for an investigation.

"I am absolutely convinced that one is necessary," he said, "because this is a very serious issue and we need to not only know what happened, but know what steps are necessary to prevent the United States from ever being misinformed again."

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Herald Feature: Iraq