Blair confirms May 5 election

Tony Blair faces reporters outside Downing Street. Picture / Reuters

LONDON - Tony Blair has confirmed the worst-kept secret in politics - that an election will be held on May 5 - as polls suggest a real contest for the first time since 1992.

With Iraq weighing heavily on his ratings, Blair put his government's economic credentials at the heart of the campaign.

Confirming the date after visiting the Queen in traditional pre-election protocol, Blair vowed to build on eight years of growth to entrench future investment in public services - which he says the Conservatives will slash.

"It's a big choice, it's a big decision. The British people are the boss and they are the ones that will make it," he told reporters outside Downing Street.

Blair had delayed the long-expected announcement by a day due to the death at the weekend of Pope John Paul.

Public anger over the Iraq war could slash Blair's parliamentary majority - five new opinion polls showed his party has lost support to the Conservatives.

Embarrassingly, one of the Labour party's candidates, Stephen Wilkinson, said on Tuesday he was defecting to the Liberal Democrats, the only major party to oppose the Iraq war.

"Who would have thought a Labour government would become a lap dog to George Bush's right wing Republican administration," Wilkinson said.

Conservative leader Michael Howard focused on Blair's perceived Achilles Heel - reduced public trust post-Iraq.

"The choice before voters on May 5 is very clear," he told party supporters. "They can either reward Mr Blair for eight years of broken promises ... or they can vote Conservative.

REAL CONTEST

Surveys in Tuesday's Guardian, Times and Independent gave Labour a lead of just two or three percentage points. Separate surveys of voters who said they would definitely vote even gave the Conservatives a lead.

If those figures were replicated on polling day, analysts say, Blair would still win a third term but with a much looser grip on parliament. At the previous two elections in 1997 and 2001, Blair easily won triple-digit majorities.

The country's electoral map, which concentrates constituencies in Labour's urban strongholds, means the Conservatives must win a larger share of the vote than Labour to take power.

The Financial Times said the 5-point Conservative lead in its poll of definite voters would still return Blair to power but with a parliamentary majority slashed from 161 seats to just 27.

If he wins, Blair would make history by becoming the first Labour premier to clinch a third consecutive term, equalling the record of Margaret Thatcher.

Blair came to power in 1997 after the 1992 vote, which Labour had been widely expected to win, swung to the Conservatives at the last minute.

If Blair's power is weakened this time, he could quickly become a lame duck as he has already stated he will not seek a fourth term.

The biggest fear of Labour strategists, mirroring the polling evidence, is that their core supporters do not bother to turn out.

Blair will visit a key marginal constituency later on Tuesday to ram home that point.

- REUTERS