WASHINGTON - An audio tape believed to be al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden praising recent attacks may have been issued to raise morale among followers and to signal future strikes, United States officials say.
If authenticated, it would be the clearest evidence in nearly a year that the world's most hunted man survived the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan and was alive in late October - because of references to events last month.
Experts said the latest tape was part of a broader al Qaeda public relations campaign as the West gears up for a possible war with Iraq.
It is being viewed in the same context as a tape a month beforehand by bin Laden's top Egyptian deputy, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, that experts say carried messages to attack.
Analysts believe the new message probably contains code words to al Qaeda operatives planning new attacks.
The Daily Telegraph reported that as with the October message from al-Zawahiri, FBI experts will take the latest audio-tape to imprisoned al Qaeda members in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, who have offered interpretations in the past.
The CIA and National Security Agency, without having the actual tape, were analysing yesterday's broadcast on the Arabic-language television channel al-Jazeera in Qatar.
Linguists will study syntax and semantic usage to make a precise judgment on who is speaking.
They have already said the voice sounded like bin Laden and was consistent with his style and tone, but technical comparison with previous known bin Laden tapes had so far been "inconclusive". There was no evidence that the tape had been tampered with or altered.
US President George W. Bush said: "Whoever put this tape out has put the world on notice yet again that we're at war and that we need to take these messages very seriously, and we will."
The audio tape may have been issued to boost the morale of bin Laden's followers but also could signal new attacks, officials said.
The current threat situation appeared to be "slightly" higher than even last month, when CIA Director George Tenet told a congressional hearing it was as serious as in the months before last year's September 11 attacks, a US official said.
"The fact of the tape out there does and should put us on greater alert," FBI Director Robert Mueller said. Bin Laden had issued tapes in the past that have been followed by attacks.
This fact combined with an increased level of al Qaeda "chatter" picked up by intelligence agencies has led to concern that another attack was coming.
"It was a warning," Senate Intelligence Committee Vice-Chairman Richard Shelby said of the tape.
The tape may also be an effort "just to show he's alive and kicking and functioning", a US official said.
An audio tape may have been used instead of video because bin Laden may be injured, has changed his appearance, did not want to inadvertently provide clues about his location, or it was technically easier to do, officials said.
In the tape, bin Laden criticises Australia's involvement in East Timor.
"We warned Australia before not to join in [the war] in Afghanistan, and its despicable effort to separate East Timor," bin Laden said.
Kirsty Sword-Gusmao, wife of East Timorese President Xanana Gusmao, said the comments were "not all that surprising".
"It may be part of an attempt to whip up fundamentalist fervour inside Indonesia by making people feel outraged at the breakup of the Indonesian Republic. This is all something that is obviously feeding into this campaign of al Qaeda and terrorist networks."
- AGENCIES
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Bin Laden tape said to be coded signal
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