Billy Adams: Risky move on cards as Abbott weighs options

Prime Minister Tony Abbott answers questions at a media conference earlier this year. Photo / Andrew Taylor

In Europe, cosmetic firms are required to put expiry dates on products with a lifespan of less than 30 months.

Similar consumer protections might be worth applying to federal politicians in Australia. That's how long it takes for a typical Canberra government to go back to the people. After the Liberal-National Coalition's second Budget and only 20 months into its first term, the smart money is now on the next poll happening earlier than usual and long before the latest possible date, in January 2017.

Time is not on Tony Abbott's side. A few months after the Prime Minister was almost toppled by his own colleagues, an early election might be the best bet to save his government - and himself.

The generous nature of Tuesday's Budget has only strengthened the perception that Abbott, despite denials, is preparing for an early poll. The big question exercising politicians and commentators was how soon.

Public response to a series of generous handouts and tax incentives, aimed squarely at the Coalition's base and swing voters, will play a big role in any decision. After the Coalition's disastrous first year in power, opinion polls have improved in recent months, and Liberal strategists are confident of victory if Abbott starts an election campaign up to four points adrift.

They regard the Labor opposition as unprepared, and are confident that an energised Abbott in full campaigning mode would expose the shortcomings of his opponent, Bill Shorten. Abbott might jump at the chance to fight Shorten, if only to avoid colleagues like Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop or Scott Morrison having a pop at his Liberal Party leadership.

Another big incentive for an early election is the chance to clear the Upper House of hostile independent and minor-party senators who hold the balance of power and have blocked chunks of the Government's legislation. This would require activation of the rarely used double dissolution trigger, under which Abbott could use the rejection of a bill to dissolve both houses of Parliament, putting every seat up for election.

Under the Australian electoral cycle, only half of all senators - who are elected for six-year terms - come up for election at one time. As most of the blockers took their seats in September 2013, the benefit could be a friendlier post-election Senate.

The double dissolution scenario would look more likely if the Government introduces previously flagged voting reform legislation designed to prevent senators being elected on a minute percentage of the vote. It is a high-risk strategy, and not since Bob Hawke in 1987 has any PM dared to use it.