Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is emboldened by the West's soft-touch, writes Con Coughlin. Photo / AP
OPINION:
As the man who enjoys the reputation of being Europe's last dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, is used to getting his own way.
Last year, when opposition politicians claimed victory in the country's presidential elections, his regime responded by orchestrating a brutal crackdown against anti-regime protesters.
Thousands were arrested and held in detention, while many leading opposition politicians were forced to flee into exile in neighbouring Lithuania.
This meant that the 66-year-old Lukashenko, who was first elected president in 1994, three years after the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union, could continue his autocratic rule even if the manner of his victory, which was the result of widespread electoral fraud, attracted bitter criticism from the West.
The European Union's response, which resulted in the imposition of sanctions against key Belarusian officials deemed to be responsible for "violence, repression and election fraud", has consequently made little impression on the Belarus president, who knows that, so long as he enjoys the unstinting support of the Kremlin, his position is secure.
This strong sense of inviolability no doubt explains the Belarus autocrat's willingness to authorise the outrageous interception of a Ryanair passenger jet this week so that his security forces could seize Roman Protasevich, a prominent anti-regime campaigner, as he travelled from Greece to Lithuania.
Hijacking civilian aircraft is usually an activity associated with terrorist groups. The unique feature of the interception of the Ryanair flight as it traversed Belarus airspace is that it was undertaken by government officials who are supposed to uphold the rule of law, unlike terrorist organisations that do not observe any legal obligations.
By authorising the interception of the aircraft, Lukashenko's regime has clearly calculated that, while it stands accused of committing a gross violation of international law, it is unlikely to face any serious repercussions.
To date the EU has banned Belarusian aircraft from entering its airspace, while flights from Europe have been ordered not to enter Belarus airspace. Britain has implemented similar measures.
Further economic sanctions are also likely, with officials directly linked to the detention of Protasevich the targets of further measures.
But there is little prospect of Lukashenko's regime being held to account for its unpardonable act of air piracy so long as it enjoys the Kremlin's unqualified backing.
The strength of Moscow's continued support for the Belarus despot was illustrated by Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, who, speaking shortly after the interception, declared that Belarus had taken an "absolutely reasonable approach".
If Europe and its allies were really serious about punishing Belarus and its Russian backers then they would be making more of an effort to cancel the construction of Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
But stiff opposition from countries like Germany makes such an approach highly unlikely. US President Joe Biden has also ruled out taking action against the pipeline for fear of upsetting Washington's allies in Europe.
The inability of freedom-loving democracies in Europe and beyond to make Lukashenko's regime suffer the consequences of its appalling actions may be deeply disappointing. But it is entirely in keeping with the weak response that is generally forthcoming whenever rogue states like Belarus opt to take the law into their own hands.
In Britain, for example, Russian oligarchs and their associates are still able to operate freely despite repeated government promises to curtail their activities in the wake of the 2006 murder of Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko and the 2018 Salisbury poisonings.
Further afield, the international pressure on Iran over its controversial nuclear programme has eased to the extent that the regime has been able to launch unprovoked attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil installations in the Gulf, as well as providing Hamas militants in Gaza with the training and technical expertise to build the arsenal of rockets that were fired at Israel during the recent escalation of hostilities.
China, too, is taking advantage of Western weakness as it continues to bully its weaker Asian neighbours into making key territorial concessions.
Nor, judging by the Biden administration's approach to these and other major challenges, is there much prospect of a significant change of attitude.
The President's response to the recent upsurge in Israeli-Palestinian violence, for example, has been to dispatch his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to the region to end what he calls Washington's "neglect" of the Palestinian cause - a move that is already doomed to failure because Hamas, the dominant force in Palestinian politics, has no interest in dealing with the Americans.
This type of confused response by Washington on major global issues only adds to the impression that the West is weak and ineffective, and encourages rogue states to commit further outrageous and criminal acts.
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