Autumn of discontent looms as unions vow action over reform

PARIS - The end of summer in France sees an event as predictable as the solstice itself: the annual warning that the country faces a "hot autumn" of strikes and protests.

In France, change normally comes through unexpected, sometimes violent bursts of unrest rather than by gradual process or parliamentary debate.

Every September, people resume the drudgery of work after the long holiday and children head back to school. The holiday's credit-card bill lands with a thump just when there are books and clothes to buy for the kids.

As the public mood sours, union leaders put in their pay demands, employers rebut them - and politicians do their best to look in charge.

Most years, this is French kabuki theatre, where the storyline is known in advance and everyone is perfectly familiar with their role.

This year, though, the "hot autumn" may boil over. There is potential for the biggest social and political turbulence since 1995, when unrest unseated the reformist Government of Alain Juppe, a protege of President Jacques Chirac.

France's economy is virtually stagnant, unemployment is at 10 per cent, petrol prices are at new peaks and confidence in the Government and its ageing head of state is on the floor.

The Communist-led General Confederation of Labour has already planned a day of action by workers in September, following a strike by teachers.

"We may not have won the 2012 Olympics, but I can promise you there will be plenty of sport in France starting in September," said the confederation's head, Bernard Thibault.

According to a Sunday opinion poll, only 30 per cent of adults are optimistic about the future - the lowest in the poll's 10-year history. In December 2004, the figure was 58 per cent.

The hottest issue is a law pushed through by decree by the new Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin, that punches a hole in employment protection. Under it, companies are entitled to fire employees without justification within their first two years.

Then there is widespread anger at the Government's sell-off of state assets. On the block: minority stakes in gas and electricity firms and majority holdings in three state companies that own and operate toll motorways.

Revenue will go to cut the national debt, which has ballooned in recent years. Finance Minister Thierry Breton has pledged to cut France's budget deficit to less than 3 per cent of GDP.

"These are assets, and you have two possibilities, either of letting them sleep or putting them to work," Breton argues. "Debt reduction is a priority."

"The Government is flogging the family silver," said Maurice Leroy, a leader of the opposition UDF party.

Work law and privatisations are at the centre of Villepin's pledge to "restore the nation's confidence" within 100 days of taking office - September 8.

So far Villepin's popularity has been holding, but he has been lucky. His main rival, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, has seen his star wane after his marriage hit the rocks.

The main opposition, the Socialists, remain rudderless and mired in divisions triggered by the referendum on the European Constitution last May.

Overall, the public remains deeply disenchanted with the "political class".

One of the most popular politicians is Trotskyist Olivier Besancenot, of the Revolutionary Communist League.

In such a climate, political missteps can easily fan resentment and turn it into protests that can topple reformists.

Villepin's gamble may pay off and set him up as a frontrunner in the 2007 presidential elections.

But it could also fail and consign him to the rubbish tip of other Prime Ministers who have wrestled with the task of changing France without inflicting any change.