Author: Saddam no Stalin

Iraq's President Saddam Hussein may want to crush United States-led forces at Baghdad in the same way Stalin's Red Army defeated the Nazis at Stalingrad in 1943.

But British historian Antony Beevor - author of Stalingrad, the acclaimed history of the siege - said he did not expect a fight for the Iraqi capital to turn into "Baghdadograd".

Stalingrad, the deadliest battle of World War II, took place 60 years ago. It saw the Red Army encircle their attackers in a counter-offensive and defeat the technically superior German Army.

Defence experts have pinpointed a Stalingrad-style siege scenario in Baghdad as a risk for the US-led invasion of Iraq.

Beevor said there were parallels but they were mostly between Saddam and Soviet leader Josef Stalin.

"Saddam is imitating Stalin ... but it does not appear the battle for Baghdad will follow the patterns of Stalingrad.

"There may be a brief siege, but it won't be a battle lasting five months. And there is no chance of the Republican Guard encircling the attackers in the way the Red Army encircled the Germans ...

"Saddam is obsessed by Stalin ... He would love to see Baghdad as a Stalingrad on the Tigris."

The German surrender at Stalingrad in February 1943 was the war's turning point, crushing Hitler's drive to isolate the Soviet heartland from the southern oil fields.

Hitler's ambitions on the Eastern Front were doomed and ultimately the German capitulation triggered defeat in the wider conflict. The battle remains a powerful symbol of Soviet courage and perseverance.

"The Iraqi Army is most definitely not the Red Army. The regular Iraqi Army and the Republican Guards' training is ultra-conventional," Beevor said. "All they can do is defend fixed positions."

It would also be "idiotic" to predict how long the conflict would last.

"There are many dangers ahead," he said.

"One thing that may have been underestimated is the danger of civil war."

- REUTERS

Herald Feature: Iraq