Australia's fertility rate at highest level in a decade

CANBERRA - At 9.23am on October 10 Sabine Nova Raffaele entered the world in Canberra.

Sabine, a firstborn, was joy to the point of bursting for mother Karina, 35, and father Michael, 37.

For Australia's policymakers, statisticians and demographers, tiny Sabine was another kind of marvel: part of a shifting wave of births that has reversed predictions of a continuing slide in fertility and begun changing perceptions of the future.

So was her mother. Karina sits just at the fringe of the nation's most fertile age group - women aged 30 to 34, reflecting a national trend to delay motherhood.

This week the Australian Bureau of Statistics released new figures showing Australia's fertility rate at its highest level for a decade, prompting "baby boom" headlines and suggesting the federal Government's A$4000 ($4550) baby bonus had unleashed the nation's reproductive urge.

Not so, said the bureau's director of demography, Patrick Corr.

"A boom, I would suggest, is a little bit of a strong word when you compare it with the baby boom of the 1940s to 1960s," he said.

"Then we were talking of a fertility rate peaking at 3.5 babies per woman. Today we're talking about half that - 1.81 babies per woman - and it's gone up from 1.77 in 2004.

"It's not a boom - it's an increase."

But Corr said the decline in fertility that has alarmed policymakers had stopped, turned around, and continued to increase since 2001.

"That is the key message."

Previously all expectations had predicted a continuing long-term decline in the fertility rate.

Now there is cautious optimism that it may increase a little more before stabilising.

But more is needed if Australiais to continue to maintain its population.

For parents to produce two children able to survive childhood, the nation's fertility rate must rise to 2.1 babies per mother.

For Treasurer Peter Costello, whose baby bonus was designed to help slow the decline in motherhood, the latest figures provide some encouragement but fall well short of the numbers needed to ease the predicted pain of an ageing Australia.

"Because we are below replacement level, it means that the ageing of the population continues, and the proportion of those of retirement age compared to those of working age continues to grow."

As it is, Australia's fertility rate remains well below the world average of 2.7 babies per women: higher than most European countries, but a fraction of the rates in the Middle East and Africa and below the rate of two babies per woman in New Zealand and the United States.

Still, the number of babies registered last year was the highest since 1993, and 5500 more than in 2004 - with New Zealanders doing their bit for Australia.

Expatriate Kiwi mothers produced 7120 babies last year, second only to Britons.

But while migrant families produced more babies than Australian-born mothers - rising to 3.1 for Pakistani women - their numbers remain too small to significantly affect national fertility.

"In Australia, about 24 per cent of our population is overseas-born and so you really have to get some movement in the Australian-born population to actually get something happening," Corr said.

Statistically, one of the most significant factors in the fertility turnaround has been delayed motherhood.

The bureau's figures show fertility among teenagers and 20 to 24-year-olds has slipped, but for 25 to 29-year-olds has risen, increased further for 30 to 34-year-olds to its highest level since 1964, and risen again for 35 to 39 year-olds.

"If you start having children in your 20s, you are likely to have more than when you start when you're 35," Corr said.

"There has been a sort of change of phase. All of a sudden fertility has moved to the older ages and we seem to have got to a stability point, particularly with 25 to 29-year-olds."

What happens now will depend on a wide range of factors, ranging from social changes that have altered the face of the Australian family, the availability of financial and child-care support, employment and economic security.

"We've been through a revolution for women in Australia in the last 30 years," Corr said.

Now all eyes are on the children of the revolution.