Despite her attempts to shuffle it to the bottom of a large and fractious in-tray, Prime Minister Julia Gillard now has no chance of avoiding a further, divisive, debate on gay marriage.
A Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers yesterday showing strong support for new laws allowing same-sex marriages was only the latest in an increasing series tracking a marked shift in public sentiment.
Gillard, who advocates Labor policy opposing the move, was bested in Parliament, where a motion from Greens MP Adam Bandt gained a one-vote majority to require federal politicians to canvass the legalisation of gay marriage in their electorates.
In the Upper House, where the party will hold the balance of power from next July, Greens Senators will propose changing the Marriage Act to allow gay couples to marry.
"I confidently predict we will see an end to discrimination and the marriage laws during this period of government," Greens Leader Senator Bob Brown said yesterday.
And Gillard faces divisions within the Government and the party, with a number of Labor MPs and Senators openly in favour of the proposal and supporting a conscience vote. Gay marriage will also be debated at next year's Labor conference.
So far Australia has resisted the change. Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have introduced civil unions that are recognised under state laws and by the federal Government for the entitlements it administers.
The City of Sydney also has a relationships declaration programme that, while not providing the legal rights of traditional marriages, enables same-sex couples to commit in writing to a life partnership and to hold a ceremonial celebration. But both Labor and the Coalition oppose gay marriage and a conscience vote.
"I do believe that in our society, with our heritage, with our traditions, with our history, that marriage has a special place and special definition, so I've been very clear about that," Gillard told ABC radio.
Her hard line on the issue, cemented after she deposed predecessor Kevin Rudd last year, surprised many.
Gillard, a member of the Labor left, is an atheist who lives in a de facto relationship.
Her stand has been supported by her openly gay Finance Minister, Penny Wong.
But their position is opposed by influential party members, and has raised concerns within Labor that the debate could distract Gillard's fragile minority Government from a raft of other controversial issues.
Powerful union leaders Paul Howes and Bill Ludwig of the Australian Workers Union, and Tony Mather, of the Construction, Mining and Engineering Union, have supported the debate and believe a conscience vote would change the Marriage Act.
But Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees' Association national secretary Joe de Bruyn has urged against tackling the controversy, warning that diverting from "bread-and-butter issues" would cost the Labor Government at the next election.
Public opinion, however, is swinging towards gay weddings. Six years ago a Newspoll in the Australian showed only 38 per cent support for same-sex marriage. This month an Essential Research poll in the same newspaper reported 53 per cent in favour.
A Galaxy Poll made for the Australian Marriage Equality lobby group last month found that 62 per cent of Australians believed same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, with support strongest among 18 to 24-year-olds.
Support also crossed party lines: 81 per cent of Greens voters, 74 per cent of Labor supporters, 48 per cent of Coalition voters and 58 per cent of those who support other parties. The poll also reported 78 per cent support for a federal conscience vote. Yesterday's Nielsen poll said that 56 per cent of Australians supported same-sex marriage - 23 per cent strongly - while 37 per cent opposed, with the remainder ambivalent or unsure.
Australian Greens force gay marriage back on agenda
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