KEY POINTS:
The kangaroos of Canberra have sent Prime Minister John Howard a message: things are not going to plan.
Both the 'roos and Howard, facing an election later this year that by all polling he is likely to lose, need rain, desperately. Instead, and despite optimistic expectations that after
almost a decade, winter rainfall will return to normal this year, vast tracts of the continent remain gripped by one of the worst droughts in recorded history.
For Canberra's big Eastern Greys, the continuing crisis is more immediate and personal. Forced from the waterless hills around the national capital, they have been gathering in steadily increasing numbers in the city's parks and reserves, creating serious problems for themselves and conservation managers.
With hunting banned except under special licence, few problems from such predators as dingoes and foxes, and the feed provided by a city that prides itself as the "bush capital", the Greys are outstripping the ability of the land to provide for them.
Surveys have recorded population densities on reserves of up to 233 kangaroos per square kilometre, compared with the highest previously published figures for similar habitats of 63 per square kilometre, and normal densities of between 10 and 30 per square kilometre.
This week the Defence Department confirmed it was considering hiring shooters to cull 'roos on bases in the Australian Capital Territory, where about 6500 Greys face starvation because of the drought. More than 3000 may be shot if the ACT Government allows the cull to go ahead - setting off a storm of protest from animal welfare groups.
Politically, Howard faces a similar fate. His conservative Coalition Government continues to trail Labor in the polls, with a Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun newspaper indicating that the Prime Minister may even lose his Sydney seat of Bennelong, the former Liberal stronghold he has held for 33 years.
This week Galaxy, Newspoll and Morgan polls continued to predict that Howard will fail in his bid for a fifth term, giving the Opposition a lead of between 14 and 20 per cent in the two-party preferred vote that determines the outcome of elections under Australia's system of preferential voting.
The nation's gamblers have also reverted to that opinion following a brief flirtation with a renewed Howard Government after last week's federal budget.
The internet betting agency Centrebet, whose odds have previously been an accurate predictor of election results, said that a series of big bets had swung odds back in Labor's favour.
Treasurer Peter Costello's budget failed to impress voters, despite a further round of tax cuts and big spending plans for education and family-oriented programmes. A Newspoll in The Australian found that while most believed the budget would be good for the economy, most also felt it would either not make a difference or would worsen their own financial positions.
Nor would most change their vote because of it - but 26 per cent said they were now more likely to vote for Labor, against 19 per cent more likely to vote for the Government.
This is not good news for Howard. Economic management is his most important citadel, and a budget that fails to win votes helps increase Labor's chances. Noted Centrebet analyst Neil Evans: "The public has a 'believe it when I see it' attitude, and therefore they will not be convinced until the actual benefits of the budget arrive. July and August will be the key months. This is when the Coalition must turn around general opinion."
In theory, the sweeteners doled out in the budget should by then have begun settling in, underpinned by a still-booming economy. Costello framed his programmes on forecast real growth in gross domestic product of 3.75 per cent in 2007-08, up from the present year's 2.5 per cent.
Treasury economists placed a great deal of hope on the end of the drought. Budget papers said the forecast expansion "reflects a partial recovery from the drought, which is underpinned by an assumed return to average seasonal conditions", and the resulting addition of half a percentage point to GDP growth.
That is a big assumption to make. The Bureau of Meteorology's most recent predictions gives only a "moderate swing in odds" of above-average rainfall in the next three months, confined to a relatively small strip on either side of the Queensland-New South Wales border. For the rest of drought-stricken Australia the chances of at least average rainfall are nudging 50-50.
Howard can read the odds himself as he flies into Canberra from Sydney. Although some recent rain has given a patina of green to the ACT, Canberra is dying of thirst, along with its kangaroos. Already enduring tough water restrictions, the city is bracing itself for even tougher restrictions from July.
These will ban all outdoor use of tap water, allowing only the use of non-potable water on lawns and plants. Sprinkler systems, car washing and similar activities are already prohibited, hitting a number of business sectors. If the new restrictions do not sufficiently lower average daily consumption rates, the territory Government is threatening to introduce as-yet unspecified restrictions inside the home. It is also considering the closure of sporting ovals and allowing as many as half the ACT's parks and reserves to dehydrate.
Similar emergencies are facing cities and towns across Australia. This week Melbourne reported its driest year on record after a 10-year run of below-average rainfall. In the past 12 months Australia's second-biggest city has recorded only half its long-term annual average rainfall of about 639mm.
And in NSW the State Government has warned all communities the Murray and Murrumbidgee valleys along the Murray-Darling river system to prepare for harsh new water restrictions. Howard has already given notice that if sufficient rain does not fall, only water for human consumption will be allowed to be taken from the system, hammering irrigated farms and businesses in the region known as Australia's foodbowl.
The impact has already been hard enough. Budget forecasts say farm GDP fell an estimated 20 per cent in 2006-07, pruning export growth. Nor is mining-fuelled optimism unlimited. The budget papers say that even with the present resources boom, growth in the nation's terms of trade are expected to dive from the 22 per cent of the past two years to just 6 per cent: rising global mining output is pushing world commodity prices down.
This does not mean the Australian economy is anywhere near big trouble. But even with the most optimistic predictions, the battlers will be feeling the pinch. Unemployment is expected to nudge up to 5 per cent, higher interest rates and soaring house prices have put home ownership out of the reach of many and helped create rental crises in major cities, and economists have warned of sharply rising food prices - driven in part from likely imports.
If rain does not come, Howard will be heading into an election with a swag of horror stories. His economic forecasts will unravel, and newspapers and television will be full of reports of new restrictions and hardships.
Agriculture will be hammered, forcing farmers off the land. Crops failed throughout the nation's wheatbelts, forcing many farmers to sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep. Farm incomes fell by more than 30 per cent. Wine production has plummeted by one-third, and will fall even further if last year's winter rainfall pattern is repeated. Country towns and their local businesses are hurting, and will hurt much more if rain does not come.
Mining has not been spared. This week Rio Tinto announced that it would sack 160 employees at its Tarong mine in southern Queensland because of measures to save water for nearby power stations. In central NSW Newcrest Mining has warned that unless rain falls soon it will have to close its Cadia Hill gold mine.
Similar problems will also hit households along the eastern seaboard. The massive Snowy Hydro scheme is running short of water, pushing up wholesale electricity prices. Pricing regulators have already approved a 14.5 per cent in Canberra's household electricity costs from July 1, with more in the pipeline.
The drought might not be Howard's fault, but rising prices and horror headlines could be fatal for a Government already suffering from voters in a mood for change.