Arctic meltdown opens alternative sea routes

By ALISTER DOYLE

A faster-than-expected thaw of the Arctic is likely to open legendary short-cut routes between the Pacific and the Atlantic, but experts say icebergs and high costs will prevent any transpolar shipping boom.

"There will be opportunities for shipping, but even in summer vessels would need thick hulls and icebreaker support," said Arne Instanes, a Norwegian scientist who wrote on transport in an eight-nation survey of global warming's Arctic impact.

The survey, presented at a conference in Iceland , predicts that the Northern Sea Route along the coast of Russia is likely to be navigable for 120 days a year in 2100 against just 30 in 2000.

It says the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice-free in summer by 2100 and that a build-up of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels is heating the Arctic twice as fast as the rest of the globe.

Yet the routes between the Pacific and Atlantic, an icy graveyard for explorers in past centuries, are unlikely to spur a shipping rush. As the ice melts there may be more icebergs, and even more fog.

"Greater use of the transpolar routes isn't going to happen quickly because there are too many uncertainties," said Walter Parker, chairman of the Circumpolar Infrastructure Task Force of the Arctic Council. "Bankers are not interested in lending unless governments also get involved in funding. Major shippers are not interested yet."

The Arctic Council groups the United States, Russia, Canada, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland and Denmark.

In the long term, the United States and other nations may find the remote routes a safer alternative to more southerly routes where terrorism or piracy could be growing risks. Cargoes like nuclear waste might be transported via the Arctic.

"Maybe these [Arctic] routes will be used because other routes have security issues," said Lawson Brigham, deputy director of the US Arctic Research Commission.

The United States now has no ice-hardened warships except nuclear submarines that can smash through ice to surface.

The polar route has clear attractions for shippers - from Osaka, Japan, to Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a trip around the polar sea could save about two weeks on a 45-day voyage through the Suez or Panama canals.

Yet the report says a thaw may add complexities. The Northwest Passage through a maze of islands north of Canada, for instance, might become more clogged by icebergs if ice bridges blocking northern channels thaw out.

"The Arctic could be a new Wild West," warned Samantha Smith, director of the WWF conservation group's Arctic Programme. "When the ice melts there will be a huge value in opening the region to shipping. We're afraid it will be done without regulation."

- REUTERS