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CAIRO - US President George W. Bush will ignore unwelcome recommendations on Middle East policy from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, especially on making contact with Syria and Iran, Arab commentators today.
The group, led by former US Secretary of State James Baker, proposed Washington abandon Bush's policy of shunning the two Middle East countries and resume attempts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which Bush has given low priority.
But Arab commentators said changing course on these policies at this stage in his presidency was more than they expected from a president who has shown little flexibility.
Taken as a whole, the recommendations would amount to a volte-face in the Middle East policy, which Bush has followed for the past six years.
Bush would be more receptive to the recommendations on Iraq, where the US president faces an urgent need to save his reputation and avert complete disaster, they said.
But some Arab commentators in the Gulf showed signs of alarm that the recommendations marked a step towards US withdrawal from Iraq, which would leave their governments exposed.
Walid Kazziha, professor of political studies at the American University in Cairo, said: "The Bush administration is probably in a state of mind where it would not implement these things, especially the Syria-Iran part of it."
"These are good recommendations and would go a long way to alleviate the problems the Americans are facing but I doubt very much they will take them seriously," he added.
Mohamed el-Sayed Said, deputy director of the Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said Bush was too far gone in his hostility toward Syria and Iran to engage in serious talks with the two governments now.
"Syria has shown signs it is willing to engage but I don't think the Bush administration is in a mood to do that with Syria and Iran. This advice will not be heeded," he said.
He said he also doubted that Bush was willing to put pressure on Israel for a compromise in the way that his father, President George Bush, and Baker did back in 1991.
"That takes a lot of guts. He would have to deal with the Israelis, would have to exercise power and pressure. I don't see them acting on that recommendation," Said added.
Adel al-Harby, political editor at the leading Saudi daily al-Riyadh, said Bush would engage with Damascus and Tehran only indirectly, through the government in Baghdad.
The initial response to the study group's recommendations from Syria and Iran was cautiously positive.
Ali Aghamohammadi, a member of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council, told Reuters the report deserved serious consideration. But he added: "America's engagement (with Iran) should be based on a win-win strategy."
A former senior Iranian official told Reuters talks with the United States would have to include compromises, including US compromises on Tehran's nuclear programme.
In the Gulf, where the perspective is a little different because of the fear of Shi'ite Muslim domination in Iraq, commentators said local governments saw signs the United States was losing the will to see through its plans for Iraq.
"I don't think the kingdom (Saudi Arabia) can welcome leaving Iraq at this stage. The kingdom has said repeatedly that the occupation forces should play their role in Iraq, not withdraw," said Harby.
"There are still many obstacles to a withdrawal, like dissolving the militias, (and) strengthening the army ... There will be conflict in Washington over this, but I don't think there will be a (major) withdrawal in 2007," he added.
Shafeeq Ghabra, a Kuwaiti political scientist and head of the Kuwait-based consultancy Jusoor Arabiya, said that to act on the recommendations would be to admit defeat in Iraq and pave the way for Iran and al-Qaeda to share Iraq between them.
"If he (Bush) acts, or if he is forced to act on the recommendations ... it will make the region blow up in a very negative way. By (withdrawing), the Iraq situation, invasion, change of regime and withdrawal will go down in US history as an abdication of responsibility," he added.
- REUTERS
