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WASHINGTON - China's new Communist Party leadership line-up unveiled yesterday brought no surprises to US China-watchers, who predicted months of caution and little movement on American concerns as leaders find their feet.
The carefully scripted party congress identified the two men positioned to one day succeed President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao and filled out the new nine-member Politburo Standing Committee - the innermost circle of power in China.
Analysing Hu's new team from Washington, China-watchers saw a conspicuous lack of political reformers, some business-savvy former provincial party bosses and a possible effort to improve relations with the estranged, democratic island of Taiwan.
Above all, they said caution would reign - at least until government posts are changed when parliament convenes in March and perhaps until after the Beijing Olympics in August.
"They might not wait until ... the Olympics, but I think they will be cautious and careful in moving forward," said Carla Freeman, a China scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.
The United States has a long list of economic disputes it wants China to tackle, from a US$200 billion ($272.33 billion) trade deficit to complaints by the US Congress and manufacturers that Beijing keeps its currency artificially competitive to rampant counterfeiting of American movies and music.
The main economic trouble-shooter on the Chinese side - Vice Premier Wu Yi, known as China's "Iron Lady" for her toughness - is slated for retirement after being left out of the newly elected Communist Party Central Committee.
"One big question is 'What are they going to do without Wu Yi?' and from the Americans' point of view, 'Who's going to manage our relations with them?" said Drew Thompson, a China expert at the Nixon Centre in Washington.
China's "co-ordinator, responder, firewoman" is likely to oversee high-level bilateral economic talks in December with US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, but then become "placeholder" until formal retirement in March, he said.
"Who's the next person? Will they have the clout to get some outcomes?" asked Thompson.
Dramatic moves to placate the United States will be unlikely while "everyone's watching their back because the transition hasn't been completed yet," said Derek Mitchell, an Asia expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
"They won't want to seem weak on the US, weak on Taiwan, or weak on trade - and this does not bode well for concessions," he said.
Freeman noted that three newly promoted leaders had served in top posts in Fujian province, which neighbours Taiwan, possibly signalling warmer relations with the island. China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since 1949, when the two sides split following the Chinese civil war.
Freeman said Hu's new team would continue on the same reformist trajectory economically - a relief to "people who had concerns that there was a protectionist, even leftist, bent" going into the party congress.
On the political front, however, she said she saw a "disappointing lack of liberal thinking among this group."
"China-watchers and people who have been pushing trade with China with the expectation that over time that would influence political change will be disappointed by this line-up," said Freeman.
- REUTERS
