Analysts at odds over terror risk

LONDON - A secret Federal Bureau of Investigation report has cast doubt on al Qaeda's ability to stage another "spectacular" attack in the United States, three-and-a-half years after the September 11 suicide hijackings and a year after the Madrid bombings, the network's only other major strike in the West.

While the al Qaeda leadership's desire to attack the US was "not in question", the report said, "their capability to do so is unclear, particularly in regard to 'spectacular' operations".

Contrary to statements by prosecutors and the FBI's own chief, Robert Mueller, the February report, obtained by ABC News, says the agency knows of no al Qaeda "sleeper" agents in the US.

The leaked report emphasises that it is not only Britain which is having difficulty measuring the potential threat from terrorism.

Recently President George W. Bush said Osama bin Laden had contacted Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al Qaeda's chief associate in Iraq, for help in planning attacks on the US.

Although some analysts saw this as a sign of weakness on the al Qaeda leader's part, Bush said: "Bin Laden's message is a telling reminder that al Qaeda still hopes to attack us on our own soil."

With Bin Laden having proved so elusive, Bush rarely mentions the name of the man he once said was wanted "dead or alive".

Pakistan's leader, General Pervez Musharraf, recently said "the trail has gone cold", even though bin Laden is assumed to be hiding in the lawless tribal territories along his country's 2400km border with Afghanistan.

While 18,000 US troops remain in Afghanistan to hunt down the remnants of al Qaeda and its Taleban allies, no British special forces are believed to have been involved in the search there since before the Iraq invasion.

But the Independent has learned that since last northern summer a squadron of the SAS has been stationed in Yemen, Bin Laden's birthplace, working alongside local security forces against al Qaeda, which draws recruits from Yemen.

The 50 SAS soldiers, about a quarter of the regiment's strength, are believed to have been involved in gunfights with terrorists in Yemen, although no British soldiers are thought to have been hurt.

Dr Rohan Gunaratna, a leading expert on al Qaeda, said: "It is highly unlikely that Bin Laden himself is in Yemen, but any contacts he makes with his extended family or networks there could lead to him."

US intelligence officials quoted by the Washington Post said Zarqawi responded positively some months ago to Bin Laden's overtures for assistance.

One senior counter-terrorism official described the Iraq-based terrorist's reply as: "Let's talk some more. I have ideas, you have ideas."

Time magazine reports that Zarqawi may be planning attacks on "soft targets" in the US, including theatres, restaurants and schools.

White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley would not discuss the specific warning, which Time said was circulated among US security agencies last week in a restricted bulletin.

Time said the bulletin was based on the interrogation of a member of Zarqawi's organisation.

- INDEPENDENT, REUTERS