Last dance? US President Donald Trump needs a late change of fortune. Photo / AP
With just two weeks to go, United States President Donald Trump is an outsider in his race for re-election.
He requires a Kiwi-like charge down the home straight to pip former Vice-President Joe Biden at the post.
Of course, as the racehorse proved when he mowed down the field to unforgettably win the Melbourne Cup in 1983, looking unlikely does not mean no chance at all.
Trump himself pulled off a late comeback to gain an Electoral College win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, that race was closer and more volatile than this one.
Biden has been the frontrunner all year and has a steady and broad lead. He's on the right side of issues voters care about. The pandemic has been the connecting tissue that has made Biden competitive in states Trump won in 2016 such as Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina.
Yesterday's FiveThirtyEight forecast put Biden's chance of winning at 87 per cent and Trump's at 12 per cent. It said Biden could get 346 electoral votes to Trump's 192. A total of 270 are needed to win.
Tomorrow's final debate is Biden's final major hurdle and could be Trump's last dance.
Here's my latest running average of demographic splits in national live-interview polls w/ new NYT/Siena added in. Biden's surged w/ 65+ between Sept. and Oct., but just a big a deal is the steady decline in undecided/third party since June/July (and vs. '16, of course). pic.twitter.com/TZDBta582B
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 20, 2020
Going into this year, Trump had a good enough set of cards to play - even with the pandemic - had he used them wisely.
He could have used his infectious foe, the coronavirus, as a common enemy to unify people. Instead he couldn't adjust from his Democrat versus Republican, them-against-us, election strategy.
The story of the campaign - at least up to this final chapter - has been how the incumbent has made it easy for his experienced and under-rated challenger.
Trump, with his strategic blunders, consistently makes the case for his opponent. Trump handed Biden a months-long chance to audition for president.
Being the incumbent usually means a probable second term. George W Bush got the country stuck in Iraq and still was returned by the voters. A president can direct the government in ways that help the voters whose support he needs.
CNN Poll of Polls averages show a Biden advantage in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin two weeks from Election Day https://t.co/OLdyJp07yo pic.twitter.com/ze8fCFVAgV
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) October 20, 2020
An attempt by Trump to deal in a practical, decisive way with the coronavirus on a national scale, and a shelving of his grievance-laden rhetoric would have made it a much tighter contest.
There was extensive economic stimulus but extra financial help to unemployed people has expired and there is no clear second-term recovery plan.
The US, like other countries, pushed hard for a vaccine. As long as they are proven safe, that could mean protection far sooner than normal, a major plus.
But this year has highlighted some countries' over-reliance on high-tech solutions to problems, rather than recognising the worth of common sense options as well. The US can scoop up rubble from a far-away asteroid, yet mask-wearing is too much for many Trump supporters.
“We all know who Donald Trump is. The real question is who we want to be,” @RepRichmond https://t.co/LbdPBXySAQ
— Eugene Scott (@Eugene_Scott) October 21, 2020
Trump's latest campaign distraction is evidence he is not listening to anyone who offers him hard-but-honest advice.
No one would recommend that he pick a fight with infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci. Not only is Fauci far more popular than Trump, but the row keeps the election firmly on Covid-19, while millions of people are voting early. Polls show voters give Trump low marks for his handling of the virus.
No one would recommend he say, while meaning it as a line of attack, that Biden would "listen to the scientists" and "he wants to listen to Dr Fauci". That's a verbal donation to the Biden campaign.
No one would recommend he say the US is "rounding the turn" of the pandemic as daily case numbers rise and people want him to deal with it.
Joe Biden entered October with nearly three times as much cash as Trump, amassing a major financial advantage for his campaign committee. https://t.co/mmk9MsFg7Q
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 21, 2020
This year there are fewer undecided and third-party voters to scrap over.
For Trump to win from here, a lot would have to go right for him, including several unknown factors. There's just enough there to keep the Democratic camp on edge.
His strategy of firing up his MAGA fans could work if he draws in enough new voters, habitual non-voters, and people who sat out the 2016 election, in the Midwestern swing states where there are a high proportion of white working class workers.
The big crowds at Trump's health-hazard rallies show there is still strong enthusiasm for him. In the 2018 Mid-term elections both Democratic and Republican turnout was high. Early voting this month has been far above 2016 levels. More than 30 million people have voted already.
@SlaughterAM on the three pillars of US foreign policy under Biden, in @FT
— Chris Blattman (@cblatts) October 21, 2020
https://t.co/2rzK2V0ISS
Polls have shown Trump with an advantage over Biden on the economy, although the latest New York Times poll showed a split and support for the Democrat's recovery plans.
Trump has a chance via tomorrow's debate to make a clear pitch on the economy to voters. Yesterday he told a rally in Pennsylvania: "This is an election between a Trump super recovery and a Biden depression".
There remains some doubt about whether Biden will inspire black and Hispanic voters to turn out for him at high levels.
The pandemic has also made parts of the campaign a guessing game. Biden has held small socially distanced events and organised digitally.
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the final Times/Siena national survey of the 2020 campaign.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 20, 2020
Biden 50, Trump 41https://t.co/T50dHrfUOh
The Republicans have done more door-knocking and have an advantage in voter registration in some key states. The Democrats have a bigger war chest.
It is unknown what impact voting suppression efforts, voter disillusionment and online misinformation will have. Nor can we be sure how accurate the polling is, especially state polls which are closer than the national average.
Of the two candidates, it would be far better to be in Biden's shoes than Trump's.
The pandemic has been a blanket over the campaign, keeping it in the same broad pattern. A shock at the last minute is unlikely.
Six people have now died in a suspected mass methanol poisoning event.