Alexander Gillespie: Attacks will continue until Middle East is stable

French police patrol at the place de la Republique in Paris, France. AP photo / Jerome Delay

Terrorism, as in intentional attacks by non-state actors against civilians, has increased rapidly since 2001.

In 2014 alone, 13 years after the War on Terror began following the collapse of the Twin Towers, nearly 33,000 people died. The figures for 2015 will eclipse 2014. In the last two weeks, on October 31, a Russian operated airliner went down in the Sinai, killing all 224 civilians. A few days ago, 41 people in Beirut were killed by suicide bombers in crowded streets. Then on Friday night in France, people acting in the name of God turned parts of Paris into a human abattoir.

The symbolism of the attack upon the French was different. This was not an attack on a provocative magazine, a religious building, a heritage site or a Parliament. This was an attack designed to cause maximum terror by the mass killing of unarmed, innocent, civilians. These were people doing nothing more threatening than going to a sports match, a café, or a music venue.

The implications for the refugee problem in Europe are bad. If the attackers intended to cause maximum chaos throughout the region, this will do it. If the reports are correct that a Syrian passport was found on one of the attackers who arrived as a refugee, this will not be an accident.

In a military style operation of this type of sophistication, someone does not accidentally leave their identification documents in their pocket. Islamic State warned they would do this, promising to smuggle many of their fighters into Europe amongst the waves of human misery washing up on the shores of the Mediterranean.

Europe is barely holding together in finding a collective response to the 715,000 individuals who have already arrived and applied for asylum this year. Europeans were already deeply pensive of the millions that are just around the corner. The temporary barriers that were emerging will be replaced by walls, as the anti-migrant groups say, 'I told you so'.

The empathy of the middle ground, those who opened their arms to the refugees, will be sorely tested. The risk that some of the people the Europeans are trying to show humanity to, may be the very same people who want to repay their kindness with inhumanity, will cause many people to pause.

If the other murderers are found to be French citizens, the difficulties will intensify. France already provides the largest contribution from Western Europe to the Jihadists in both Syria and Iraq. Their contribution has grown from 20 in early 2013 to somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 by the end of this year.

Alternately, the killers may have never joined the external conflicts. The Kouachi brothers who were at the forefront of the murders at Charle Hebdo earlier this year were primarily radicalised in France. The fact that such groups can swim within the existing population of two million plus Muslims in France and the thousands of alienated individuals who may by sympathetic to Islamic State, will add pressure to an already very tense situation.

From their forthright defence of freedom of speech, through to their prohibition in 2010 of face covering materials including the burqa, the French are in the front line of the culture wars against radical Islam.

This front line is obvious with this attack. The terrorists could have waited a few more weeks when over 190 governments and thousands of followers will arrive in Paris for the climate talks. Rather, they made this personal against France, as it is the French who have been at the forefront of the European response against Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria.

In addition, the French are just about to escalate their efforts, by sending their aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, to the warzone. At the same time, the attempts to find a road-map to peace for Syria are being held in Vienna. Although significant sticking points remain between Russia and the Western allies of the best way forward, the desire to find a deal will be stronger than ever. The French attack may result in the Western allies coming closer to the Russian position, as only collectively will it be possible to win in both Iraq and Syria.

A collective response would be under the United Nations umbrella, boots on the ground would follow, and we would get a telephone call to help.

Until stable regimes with meaningful values are rebuilt in the Middle East, the region will continue to hemorrhage refugees and spit out the kind of evil that has stained the streets of Paris with blood.

Alexander Gillespie is a professor of law at the University of Waikato.