Afghanistan going poorly for US - report

United States intelligence agencies have given a pessimistic account of military progress in Afghanistan, undercutting the more upbeat assessments from the US military expected to be reflected today in President Barack Obama's report on the war.

Sixteen intelligence agencies say in the classified National Intelligence Estimates that big parts of Afghanistan are in danger of falling to the Taleban, and confirm Pakistan is unwilling to stop secretly supporting the Taleban which uses Pakistani territory as a safe haven.

The downbeat estimates by America's intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the Defence Intelligence Agency, directly contradict the claim last week by US Defence Secretary Robert Gates that the Army offensive against the Taleban in south Afghanistan was making significant gains.

The reports on Afghanistan and Pakistan were leaked to the media on the eve of Obama's progress report on the nine-year war.

The sombre assessments underline the divisions in Washington over the conflict.

The US military last year put heavy political pressure on the White House to send 30,000 reinforcements to Afghanistan, bringing US troop numbers up to 100,000. The generals have downplayed Obama's policy of starting to withdraw these forces in 2011, claiming that they can turn the tide on the battlefield.

Defence officials reacted angrily at the NIE reports, claiming that the latest information in them dates from September and the army has won big successes in the two and a half months since then. They also say that the reports were written by analysts without direct experience of Afghanistan.

These allegations are being dismissed as absurd by the intelligence agencies, which have officers and sources all over Afghanistan. The CIA has a 3000-strong private Afghan army used in special operations and funds many Afghan militia leaders.

US forces may be making progress in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, where the Taleban are traditionally strong, but other parts of the country are increasingly insecure. Kabul is under government control, but the roads out of the capital are either under Taleban control or vulnerable. The increasing sway of the Taleban in the north and other parts of the country where they were previously weak, was emphasised yesterday by the International Committee of the Red Cross which expressed alarm that many parts of the country were now inaccessible to aid groups.

The US commander in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, has said that a successful counter-insurgency depends on a correct political approach, but critics say the US has no political strategy. The US is at odds with President Hamid Karzai, who reportedly once told Petraeus after a row: "If I had to choose sides today, I'd choose the Taleban."

Though it often disregards Karzai's views, the US cannot do without him. His denunciations of US special operations forces - acting effectively as death squads, making night raids on Afghan villages in pursuit of Taleban commanders - probably reflect the views of a majority of Afghans.

As violence intensifies, US forces are regarded with growing hostility. An opinion poll by the BBC, ABC, and other news organisations showed that, in provinces with the most fighting, the proportion of people approving of attacks on US troops had risen from 12 to 40 per cent in the past year.

- Independent