The US forecasts that by 2030, the Chinese will have roughly tripled its current stock of nuclear warheads. Photo / File
The US forecasts that by 2030, the Chinese will have roughly tripled its current stock of nuclear warheads. Photo / File
The West and China could "miscalculate" their way into nuclear war, the UK's national security adviser has warned.
Sir Stephen Lovegrove said Britain had "clear concerns" that Beijing was expanding its nuclear arsenal and that China's "disdain" for arms control agreements was a "daunting prospect".
In a significant hardening of the UK position, Sir Stephen warned that the world may no longer have the Cold War safeguards that prevented nuclear war with the USSR, and raised the prospect of an "uncontrolled conflict" between China and the West.
He said the world was entering a "dangerous new age of proliferation", with threats from genetic weapons, space-based systems, and lasers.
"We should be honest, strategic stability is at risk," Sir Stephen told an audience at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
"We need to start thinking about the new security order."
Liz Truss, who is standing for the Tory party leadership, also warned of the "malign influence" of China as she unveiled plans to build closer ties among the 56 Commonwealth nations.
The Foreign Secretary's plan, announced as the Commonwealth Games get under way in Birmingham today, would fast-track the signing of trade deals between member states.
"As one of the largest groups of freedom-loving democracies, we must ensure there are clear benefits to remaining a member of the Commonwealth and offer nations a clear alternative to growing malign influence from Beijing," she said.
Liz Truss warned of the "malign influence" of China as she unveiled plans to build closer ties among the 56 Commonwealth nations. Photo / AP
Meanwhile, a leaked paper cast doubt on her rival Rishi Sunak's claims to be a China hawk.
The Treasury document showed he was close to signing a new economic agreement with Beijing earlier this year to make the UK the "market of choice" for Chinese companies.
It comes as Joe Biden, the US president, is set to speak to Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, in an effort to cool tensions over Taiwan.
China has angrily objected to a proposed visit to the island by Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker.
"If the US insists on going its own way and challenging China's bottom line, it will surely be met with forceful responses," said China's foreign ministry spokesman.
Sir Stephen also said that China could plunge the world into conflict through the development of hybrid weapons as well as nuclear.
"During the Cold War, we benefited from a series of negotiations and dialogues that improved our understanding of Soviet doctrine and capabilities - and vice versa," he said.
"This gave us both a higher level of confidence that we would not miscalculate our way into nuclear war. Today, we do not have the same foundations with others who may threaten us in the future - particularly with China."
He said in the modern world there was a "much broader range of strategic risks and pathways to escalation".
"Doctrine is opaque in Moscow and Beijing, let alone Pyongyang or Tehran. So the question is how we reset strategic stability for the new era - finding a balance amongst unprecedented complexity so there can be no collapse into uncontrolled conflict," he added.
Sir Stephen called for the lines of communication to be kept open with adversaries.
Drawing on a quote from Winston Churchill, he said: "We want jaw-jaw, not war-war."
The Federation of American Scientists estimates that China has 350 nuclear warheads, compared with Russia's 6257 and America's 5600.
But in its latest assessment of China's military capabilities, the US forecasts that by 2030, the Chinese will have roughly tripled its current stock.
China has not signed or ratified the treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons, which was agreed by 86 states in 2017.
Last month Nicholas Burns, America's ambassador to Beijing, said that US-China relations had deteriorated to probably "the lowest moment" since diplomacy between the two powers resumed in 1972.
Earlier this year, China insisted it would continue to "modernise its nuclear arsenal for reliability and safety issues".
