Absent friends could hold the key

By MARY DEJEVSKY

WASHINGTON - Whatever is decided about recounts in Florida counties, the definitive result of the election may hinge less on these than on the absentee votes.

The precise number of such ballots - cast mostly by United States service personnel and Americans living abroad - is not known. The best estimate for Florida is between 4000 and 6000. With the official count currently giving Bush victory by just 300 votes, even a small margin one way or the other could clinch the election.

All Florida absentee ballots must be in by 6 pm tomorrow (New Zealand time) - that is 10 days after the election. The expectation is that they will be counted - and the result declared - on Sunday.

Yesterday, some 4000 absentee ballots had been received by 65 of Florida's 67 counties - many of them in time to be included in each county's election day tally. Another 7000 were reported last week to have been requested and not yet returned.

But there is no direct correlation between the number of ballots requested and the number returned. Some of those who requested them will not return them, but there will also be a number of service personnel who did not request a ballot in time, but asked for - and received - an "emergency" ballot form on election day. Such emergency ballots allow someone to vote for federal offices: President, Senator and members of Congress, but not state-level posts.

The Bush campaign is setting great store by the absentee vote in Florida. They are pinning their hopes on what they believe to be the generally more conservative inclinations of the military.

However, other factors come into play. The Democrats made great efforts to mobilise ethnic minorities, including in the military, this year. And military personnel are not the only people with absentee ballots.

There are also dual US-Israeli nationals resident in Israel, and traditionally Democrat voters, who could have been encouraged to vote in greater numbers this year by Al Gore's selection of Joe Lieberman as his running mate. Officials say US voter registration in Israel was up 15 per cent this year.

If the absentee ballots do prove decisive, the election may not be over. Opportunities for more lawsuits are legion.

Regulations stipulate that an absentee ballot must be postmarked election day or, failing that, be dated by the voter on the ballot. But errors abroad and the late dispatch could complicate matters.

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